---
title: "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Francis Nielsen in Nielsen v. Watanabe"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-francis-nielsen-in-nielsen-v-watanabe
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-08-01T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 431.85
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:23:11+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-francis-nielsen-in-nielsen-v-watanabe
---

# Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Francis Nielsen in Nielsen v. Watanabe

Live · $432 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the Supreme Court, in Nielsen v. Watanabe, rules Watanabe may not pursue a Bivens damages claim against Nielsen for allegedly inadequate medical care, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Ninth Circuit erred in recognizing a Bivens cause of action for Watanabe’s claim against Nielsen, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that the Ninth Circuit did not err, dismisses the case, finds certiorari improvidently granted, or vacates or remands without deciding whether the Ninth Circuit erred in recognizing the Bivens cause of action. A remand accompanied by a merits holding that the Ninth Circuit did err resolves to Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 79¢ on Kalshi | 79¢ |
| No | 25% | 29¢ on Kalshi | 29¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/109513?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-francis-nielsen-in-nielsen-v-watanabe.

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