---
title: "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of St. Mary Catholic Parish in Littleton in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-st-mary-catholic-parish-in-littleton-in-st-mary-catholic-parish-v-roy
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-08-01T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 632.87
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:23:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-st-mary-catholic-parish-in-littleton-in-st-mary-catholic-parish-v-roy
---

# Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of St. Mary Catholic Parish in Littleton in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy

Live · $633 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, either that proving a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin may displace Smith even when the government has not explicitly excluded religious people or institutions, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A merits ruling establishing either proposition is sufficient, even if the Court does not reach the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition, or if the case is dismissed, settled, DIG’d, or remanded without a merits ruling establishing either proposition.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78% | 82¢ on Kalshi | 82¢ |
| No | 23% | 27¢ on Kalshi | 27¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/89016?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-st-mary-catholic-parish-in-littleton-in-st-mary-catholic-parish-v-roy.

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