---
title: "Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-uk-reverse-the-diego-garcia-sovereignty-transfer
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5025.61
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:20:11+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-uk-reverse-the-diego-garcia-sovereignty-transfer
---

# Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?

Live · $5,026 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A decision qualifies if the UK government announces that it will not transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, including by abandoning the May 22, 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty or agreeing to a replacement arrangement under which the UK retains sovereignty over Diego Garcia. Abandoning, withdrawing from, or superseding that treaty qualifies only if the UK does not, at the same time, agree to, announce, or state its intention to pursue another arrangement under which Mauritius would become sovereign over Diego Garcia. Changes to payments, the duration or terms of the UK's use of Diego Garcia, security provisions, implementation dates, or other treaty provisions do not qualify if Mauritius would still become sovereign over Diego Garcia.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:

Formal signing of treaties
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies

Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions (unless specified)
Retraction of previously announced commitments

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 45% | 49¢ on Kalshi | 49¢ |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 38% | 40¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 26% | 28¢ on Kalshi | 28¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 14% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/626667?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-uk-reverse-the-diego-garcia-sovereignty-transfer.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.