---
title: "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-united-states-recognize-reza-pahlavi-as-the-leader-of-iran-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1777733.44
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:20:09+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-united-states-recognize-reza-pahlavi-as-the-leader-of-iran-in-2026
---

# Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Live · $1,777,733 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ | 98¢ |
| Yes | 3% | 2.5¢ on Polymarket | 3.7¢ | 2.5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2158?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5148?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-united-states-recognize-reza-pahlavi-as-the-leader-of-iran-in-2026).

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