---
title: "Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-default-on-its-debt-by-dec-31-2026
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1937.83
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T18:52:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-default-on-its-debt-by-dec-31-2026
---

# Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?

Live · kickoff 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC · $1,938 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99% | 100¢ on Kalshi | 100¢ |
| Yes | 2% | 2.9¢ on Kalshi | 2.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2296?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-default-on-its-debt-by-dec-31-2026.

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