---
title: "Will the U.S. goods trade deficit with China before January 1, 2027 be below $150B?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-goods-trade-deficit-with-china-before-january-1-2027-be-below-150b
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-04T13:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1266.38
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:38:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-goods-trade-deficit-with-china-before-january-1-2027-be-below-150b
---

# Will the U.S. goods trade deficit with China before January 1, 2027 be below $150B?

Live · $1,266 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.

For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China

The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| No | 39% | 75¢ on Kalshi | 75¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/81293?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-goods-trade-deficit-with-china-before-january-1-2027-be-below-150b.

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