---
title: "Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-on-dec-12-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-12T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14306.85
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:47:52+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-on-dec-12-2026
---

# Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?

Live · $14,307 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.

Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:

OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026
OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"

Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:

A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations
Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 69% | 70¢ on Kalshi | 70¢ |
| Yes | 32% | 33¢ on Kalshi | 33¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/608812?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-on-dec-12-2026.

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