---
title: "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3493812.46
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:06:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026
---

# Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Live · $3,493,812 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95% | 96¢ on Polymarket | 96¢ |
| Yes | 5% | 6¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4958?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.