---
title: "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 72918339.71
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:04:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
---

# Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Live · $72,918,340 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## About

This market asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026. A "Yes" resolution requires the U.S. to launch such an offensive before the deadline, with land de facto controlled by either country as of November 4, 2025 treated as sovereign territory for scoring purposes. Otherwise, the market resolves "No."

Across the two platforms carrying the event, "No" is the clear favourite at a consensus 84.5%, implying roughly a one-in-six chance that a U.S. invasion occurs within the window. Limitless prices "No" at 84.5% and Polymarket at 84.0%, while "Yes" sits at 15.5% on both venues. Polymarket dominates the liquidity picture, with about $67.1 million in volume and $804,400 in liquidity, compared with just $7 in volume on Limitless.

The cross-platform spread is negligible: prices differ by only about half a percentage point on the "No" side and are effectively identical on "Yes." Overall, traders on both Polymarket and Limitless are aligned in viewing a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 as a low-probability outcome.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84% | 84¢ on Limitless | 84¢ | 84¢ |
| Yes | 17% | 17¢ on Limitless | 17¢ | 17¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/572168?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4873?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027.

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