---
title: "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14198211.29
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:05:05+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by
---

# Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Live · $14,198,211 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3.4¢ on Polymarket | 3.4¢ |
| No | 97% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31, 2025 — 2 outcomes
- January 31 — 2 outcomes
- March 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/591177?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by.

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