---
title: "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7834117.19
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:16:06+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
---

# Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Live · $7,834,117 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3.9¢ on Polymarket | 3.9¢ |
| No | 97% | 98¢ on Polymarket | 98¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31 — 2 outcomes
- April 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4912?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.