---
title: "Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? — each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business)"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-us-take-at-least-1-stakes-in-both-openai-and-anthropic-each-of-openai-and-anthropic-including-any-successor-or-parent-substantially-owning-its-ai-business
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-01-20T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 588.88
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics", "Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:17:47+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-take-at-least-1-stakes-in-both-openai-and-anthropic-each-of-openai-and-anthropic-including-any-successor-or-parent-substantially-owning-its-ai-business
---

# Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? — each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business)

Live · $589 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 36% | 40¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/292771?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-us-take-at-least-1-stakes-in-both-openai-and-anthropic-each-of-openai-and-anthropic-including-any-successor-or-parent-substantially-owning-its-ai-business.

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