---
title: "Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-world-pass-2-degrees-celsius-over-pre-industrial-levels-before-2050
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2050-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 20860.33
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:04:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-world-pass-2-degrees-celsius-over-pre-industrial-levels-before-2050
---

# Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Live · $20,860 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 67% | 68¢ on Kalshi | 68¢ |
| No | 34% | 35¢ on Kalshi | 35¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/199?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-world-pass-2-degrees-celsius-over-pre-industrial-levels-before-2050.

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