---
title: "Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in France in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-there-be-a-successful-vote-of-no-confidence-in-france-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 844.15
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T05:04:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-a-successful-vote-of-no-confidence-in-france-in-2026
---

# Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in France in 2026?

Live · $844 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If there is a successful vote of no confidence in the French parliament before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A motion of censure counts only if the Assemblée nationale adopts it. A government-initiated confidence vote counts only if the Assemblée refuses to grant confidence; a confidence vote that the Government wins does not count.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 72% | 74¢ on Kalshi | 74¢ |
| Yes | 28% | 30¢ on Kalshi | 30¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/940962?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-a-successful-vote-of-no-confidence-in-france-in-2026).

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