---
title: "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-2026-27
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-04-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9740.6
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:19:18+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-2026-27
---

# Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Live · $9,741 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". 

A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).

This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.

The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97% | 100¢ on Polymarket | 100¢ |
| No | 3% | 5.5¢ on Polymarket | 5.5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/92922?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-2026-27.

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