---
title: "Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-there-be-a-year-with-zero-wild-polio-cases-before-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 42673.41
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:52:11+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-a-year-with-zero-wild-polio-cases-before-2030
---

# Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?

Live · $42,673 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95% | 96¢ on Kalshi | 96¢ |
| Yes | 5% | 6.5¢ on Kalshi | 6.5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/266?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-a-year-with-zero-wild-polio-cases-before-2030.

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