---
title: "Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-there-be-an-at-least-80-magnitude-earthquake-in-japan-before-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 45469.54
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:17:10+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-an-at-least-80-magnitude-earthquake-in-japan-before-2030
---

# Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

Live · $45,470 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 70% | 71¢ on Kalshi | 71¢ |
| Yes | 31% | 32¢ on Kalshi | 32¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/278?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-there-be-an-at-least-80-magnitude-earthquake-in-japan-before-2030.

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