---
title: "Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-trump-announce-a-trade-deal-with-cuba-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 68238.47
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:47:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-announce-a-trade-deal-with-cuba-before-jan-1-2027
---

# Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Live · $68,238 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement.
A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient.
If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84% | 86¢ on Kalshi | 86¢ |
| Yes | 16% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 18¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/768900?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-announce-a-trade-deal-with-cuba-before-jan-1-2027.

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