---
title: "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-december-31-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3143.54
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:46:19+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-december-31-2026
---

# Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Live · $3,144 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95% | 95¢ on Polymarket | 95¢ |
| Yes | 6% | 6¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/7611?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-december-31-2026.

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