---
title: "Will Trump recognize Taiwan? — During Trump's term"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-trump-recognize-taiwan-during-trumps-term
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-01-20T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 38740.91
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:35:33+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-recognize-taiwan-during-trumps-term
---

# Will Trump recognize Taiwan? — During Trump's term

Live · $38,741 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.

Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 13% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| Before 2027 | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/334?via=md)

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Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-recognize-taiwan-during-trumps-term.

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