---
title: "Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? — Chair of the Federal Reserve"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-trump-try-to-fire-kevin-warsh-chair-of-the-federal-reserve
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 33170.65
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T06:13:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-try-to-fire-kevin-warsh-chair-of-the-federal-reserve
---

# Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? — Chair of the Federal Reserve

Live · $33,171 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A "try to fire" includes any of the following:

The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination;
Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person;
Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person;
The White House officially announces termination;
Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination;
Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal

The following do NOT qualify:

Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired;
Expressions of dissatisfaction;
Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation;
Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person;
Statements by other officials unless directed by the President;
Unsent letters ordering termination

This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 20% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293295?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-trump-try-to-fire-kevin-warsh-chair-of-the-federal-reserve.

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