--- title: "Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?" canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on status: settled trading_closes_at: 2026-09-30T20:59:00+00:00 settled_at: 2026-10-03T23:17:31+00:00 total_volume_usd: 19719.8 venues: ["Polymarket"] categories: ["Politics", "World"] prices_as_of: 2026-10-11T05:16:14+00:00 publisher: BetCrypto data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on --- # Will Ukraine target Moscow on...? Settled · $19,720 traded · listed on Polymarket ## Result **No** won. Settled 2026-10-03. ## About This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting. _From Polymarket's listing._ ## Other markets - September 23 — 2 outcomes - September 24 — 2 outcomes - September 25 — 2 outcomes - September 26 — 2 outcomes - September 27 — 2 outcomes - September 28 — 2 outcomes - September 29 — 2 outcomes _Every market's prices are on the event page._ ## Open on a venue - [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/599500?via=md) --- Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on. BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.