---
title: "Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-us-federal-deficit-to-gdp-for-fy2026-be-below-5
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-20T12:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 76243.03
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:56:11+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-us-federal-deficit-to-gdp-for-fy2026-be-below-5
---

# Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?

Live · kickoff 2026-10-20 00:00 UTC · $76,243 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95% | 95¢ on Kalshi | 95¢ |
| Yes | — | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1357?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-us-federal-deficit-to-gdp-for-fy2026-be-below-5.

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