---
title: "Will U.S. real average hourly earnings growth (all private employees, YoY, seasonally adjusted) for December 2026 be above 0.0%?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-us-real-average-hourly-earnings-growth-all-private-employees-yoy-seasonally-adjusted-for-december-2026-be-above-00
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-13T13:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2925.71
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:37:56+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-us-real-average-hourly-earnings-growth-all-private-employees-yoy-seasonally-adjusted-for-december-2026-be-above-00
---

# Will U.S. real average hourly earnings growth (all private employees, YoY, seasonally adjusted) for December 2026 be above 0.0%?

Live · $2,926 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the seasonally adjusted 12-month percent change in U.S. real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for December 2026 is strictly above 

0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported in BLS’s Real Earnings release for December 2026. This measure adjusts hourly earnings for inflation using CPI-U.

The first published percentage change will be used, including if designated preliminary, at the precision reported by BLS. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. A reported change of 0.0% or less resolves No. The market measures December-to-December growth, not the change in annual averages.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| No | — | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/879028?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-us-real-average-hourly-earnings-growth-all-private-employees-yoy-seasonally-adjusted-for-december-2026-be-above-00).

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