---
title: "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6345775.44
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:01:44+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-by
---

# Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Live · $6,345,775 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". 

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2.9¢ on Polymarket | 2.9¢ |
| No | 97% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |

## Other markets

- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4922?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-by.

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