---
title: "Will Venezuela exit OPEC?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-venezuela-exit-opec
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:01:36+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-venezuela-exit-opec
---

# Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

Live · $2 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition statement, or an OPEC+ policy change without an OPEC withdrawal does NOT qualify.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:

Formal signing of treaties, accords, or binding agreements
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies

Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents not confirmed by government sources
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions
Retraction of previously announced commitments

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | — | — | — |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | — | — | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/750745?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-venezuela-exit-opec.

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