---
title: "Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-wales-announce-an-independence-referendum-before-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 603.96
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:02:28+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-wales-announce-an-independence-referendum-before-2030
---

# Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

Live · $604 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:

Formal signing of treaties
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies

Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions (unless specified)
Retraction of previously announced commitments

Confirmation must come from the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a Welsh authority legally empowered to commit to holding the referendum. A binding legal instrument qualifies only if it commits to the poll; merely granting a power to call one does not qualify. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, non-binding Senedd motions, consultations, requests for permission, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Announcements made before issuance do not qualify.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 78% | 81¢ on Kalshi | 81¢ |
| Yes | 22% | 25¢ on Kalshi | 25¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/530868?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-wales-announce-an-independence-referendum-before-2030.

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