---
title: "World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/world-cup-nation-to-reach-semifinals-polymarket-9de34122
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-14T03:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-14T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5024277.13
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "World", "Soccer"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T19:56:05+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/world-cup-nation-to-reach-semifinals-polymarket-9de34122
---

# World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals

Settled · $5,024,277 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## Result

**Argentina** won. Settled 2026-07-14.

## About

This market tracks individual nations' chances of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals, with each team's contract resolving "Yes" if they advance and "No" if they are eliminated. The snapshot captures a live tournament in the midst of its quarterfinal round.

The context is now very clear from the results. Only six teams remain after France ousted Morocco and Spain bounced Belgium in the first two quarterfinals. The remaining quarterfinal pairings are Norway vs. England and Argentina vs. Switzerland. That explains why France (Polymarket 99.7%, Limitless 99.5%) and Spain (Polymarket 99.9%) sit near certainty — both have already clinched their semifinal berths — while the four still-competing nations carry genuine uncertainty.

Argentina leads the live contenders at a consensus 75.5%, priced at 75.0% on Polymarket. Lionel Messi aims to keep his dream of a back-to-back World Cup alive against surprise side Switzerland. England sits at 65.0% on both Polymarket and Limitless (65.2%), reflecting a slight favourite edge over Norway, who is priced at 36.0% on Polymarket and 35.9% on Limitless. Switzerland trails at 25.9%, consistent with being the underdog against Argentina.

The most notable cross-platform discrepancy belongs to Argentina, where Limitless prices the reigning champions at just 41.8% versus Polymarket's 75.0% — a striking 33.75-point spread that likely reflects Limitless's thin liquidity ($0) rather than a genuine difference in market opinion. Polymarket, with over $4.7 million in volume and $1.2 million in liquidity, is the more reliable signal here. Overall, both platforms agree on the hierarchy — France and Spain are through, Argentina and England are favoured to join them — with Polymarket providing the sharper, higher-confidence pricing.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Mexico — 1 outcomes
- South Korea — 1 outcomes
- South Africa — 1 outcomes
- Czechia — 1 outcomes
- Canada — 1 outcomes
- Switzerland — 1 outcomes
- Qatar — 1 outcomes
- Bosnia and Herzegovina — 1 outcomes
- Brazil — 1 outcomes
- Morocco — 1 outcomes
- Scotland — 1 outcomes
- Haiti — 1 outcomes
- USA — 1 outcomes
- Australia — 1 outcomes
- Paraguay — 1 outcomes
- Turkiye — 1 outcomes
- Germany — 1 outcomes
- Ecuador — 1 outcomes
- Ivory Coast — 1 outcomes
- Curacao — 1 outcomes
- Netherlands — 1 outcomes
- Japan — 1 outcomes
- Tunisia — 1 outcomes
- Sweden — 1 outcomes
- Belgium — 1 outcomes
- Iran — 1 outcomes
- Egypt — 1 outcomes
- New Zealand — 1 outcomes
- Spain — 1 outcomes
- Uruguay — 1 outcomes
- Saudi Arabia — 1 outcomes
- Cape Verde — 1 outcomes
- France — 1 outcomes
- Senegal — 1 outcomes
- Norway — 1 outcomes
- Iraq — 1 outcomes
- Argentina — 1 outcomes
- Austria — 1 outcomes
- Algeria — 1 outcomes
- Jordan — 1 outcomes
- … and 8 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4761?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4944?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/world-cup-nation-to-reach-semifinals-polymarket-9de34122.

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