# BetCrypto

> BetCrypto aggregates prediction markets from Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini, Novig, Limitless, Azuro and Polymarket US, normalises them into canonical events, and compares implied probabilities across platforms. Where a single venue shows one price, BetCrypto shows every venue pricing the same real-world question side by side.

Data is refreshed continuously from platform APIs and on-chain sources. Prices quoted in articles are accurate as of the publication timestamp; follow the event links for live figures.

## Market briefs

Regular editorial briefings on the events driving prediction-market activity. Written by an AI system from live market data and cited news sources, published under editorial review. Each article is available as clean Markdown with YAML provenance front matter at the `.md` URL below.

- [All briefs](https://betcrypto.now/news): index of published market briefs
- [RSS feed](https://betcrypto.now/news/feed.xml): the 30 most recent briefs

## Recent briefs

- [Bulgaria margin odds collapse as Lamar Jackson doubts hit Ravens](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-23-bulgaria-margin-odds-collapse-as-lamar-jackson-doubts-hit.md): Polymarket traders cut odds of a 20-30 point Iotova first-round margin from 62.0% to 14.0%, as late polls showed her lead over Gyurov nearer 17-18 points.
- [Arsenal and Man United odds slide as LA mayor race swings to Bass](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-21-arsenal-and-man-united-odds-slide-as-la-mayor-race-swings-to.md): Kalshi traders cut Nithya Raman's odds of winning the Los Angeles mayoral race by 12 points, and both English clubs drifted ahead of Wednesday's Champions League games.
- [Barcelona loses its edge before PSG as Bank of Canada hike odds climb](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-19-barcelona-loses-its-edge-before-psg-as-bank-of-canada-hike.md): Barcelona's odds of beating PSG fell from 53.5% to 40.5% with two defenders ruled out, while odds of a Bank of Canada rate rise climbed from 14.5% to 33.9%.
- [Brewers surge in World Series market as Eagles lose Hurts for Sunday](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-16-brewers-surge-in-world-series-market-as-eagles-lose-hurts.md): Milwaukee's NLCS sweep of the Dodgers lifted its title odds to 65.3%, while the Eagles became underdogs against Carolina after Jalen Hurts was ruled out.
- [BNK FEARX odds surge as Champions League volume floods in](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-14-bnk-fearx-odds-surge-as-champions-league-volume-floods-in.md): BNK FEARX became the Demacia Cup favourite after reaching the grand final, while Manchester City vs PSG and Roma vs Real Madrid each drew over $3 million.
- [Bills Slip Before Monday Night Game in Los Angeles; Sánchez Odds Fall](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-12-bills-slip-before-monday-night-game-in-los-angeles-sanchez.md): Bills odds fell 3.6 points over the week before Monday night's game against the Rams, on a day of $4,463,889 in volume.
- [Lamar Jackson ruled out, Rays sweep Yankees headline a busy week on prediction markets](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-09-lamar-jackson-ruled-out-rays-sweep-yankees-headline-a-busy.md): Lamar Jackson's ankle injury flipped Ravens-Falcons odds by 34 points, while the Rays' ALDS sweep more than doubled their pennant odds.
- [Gemini closes on Claude as Fed hike doubts grow](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-05-eagles-injuries-crash-super-bowl-odds-as-gemini-and-nobel.md): Google's Gemini 4 Argon launch reshuffled the year-end AI prediction market, while doubt grew over another Fed rate hike this year.
- [Google overtakes Anthropic in near-term AI model market as midterms volume surges](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-10-02-google-overtakes-anthropic-in-near-term-ai-model-market-as.md): Google passed Anthropic in the end-of-October AI market after launching Gemini 4 Argon, while 2026 midterm prediction volumes tripled.
- [October Fed hike odds drop as traders shift bets to December; Padres odds double](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-30-mark-kelly-vp-odds-crater-as-wnba-and-mlb-playoffs-dominate.md): A 34-point drop in October Fed hike odds headlines a week in which shifting rate expectations and the start of the MLB postseason moved markets.
- [Trump's AI rename speech lifts odds as Xiaomi leads Chinese AI market](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-28-eagles-rout-bears-trump-renames-ai-xiaomi-leads-chinese-ai.md): Three prediction markets moved sharply this week, driven by a Trump UN speech, Xiaomi's new AI model launch, and Elon Musk's weekly post count.
- [Hormuz reopening odds rise amid deal reports as MrBeast and MLS markets move](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-25-hormuz-deal-rumours-and-college-football-tip-a-busy.md): Strait of Hormuz reopening odds rose amid reports of a phased US-Iran deal, while markets on a MrBeast video and the MLS title race also moved this week.
- [Bass slips, Malkovich leads, and the Fed pivots to hikes](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-23-cardinals-surge-bass-slips-and-the-fed-pivots-to-hikes.md): Karen Bass's lead narrowed in Los Angeles, John Malkovich rose after his Venice win, and October Fed hike odds reached 69.5% after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023.
- [Bitcoin's $84K spike lifts 2026 price targets as Musk tweet market narrows](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-21-sirianni-odds-collapse-bitcoin-surges-past-84k.md): The odds of Bitcoin hitting $90,000 in 2026 jumped to 74.5% as Bitcoin broke $84,000 for the first time since January, reshaping the full-year price market in a single week.
- [German state race flips, Senate odds surge toward Democrats](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-18-german-state-race-flips-senate-odds-surge-toward-democrats.md): A late poll showing SPD overtaking AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern accompanied the sharpest move in this brief, a 31.8-point swing against AfD.
- [Clarity Act odds fall to 7% as crypto law timeline slips](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-16-senate-cloture-vote-crashes-clarity-act-odds-to-7.md): The Clarity Act's 2026 passage odds fell from 15.5% to 7.0%, while Kalshi's market on when crypto market-structure law arrives cut its "Before Oct 1, 2027" bucket by 24.5 points.
- [Fed rate hike odds jump to 80.5% in a busy prediction market week](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-14-villarreal-and-the-fed-dominate-a-busy-prediction-market.md): A September Fed rate hike priced at 80.5% led the week, while volume jumped 1,259% in Elon Musk's weekly tweet-count market and 1,767% in a Karoline Leavitt briefing market.
- [Flávio Bolsonaro Surges, Fed Markets Tighten Before September Vote](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-11-flavio-bolsonaro-surges-fed-markets-tighten-before-september.md): Bolsonaro's son gains 11.7 points amid a Supreme Court dispute roiling Brazil, while Fed dissent odds and October rate expectations shift sharply ahead of next week's FOMC decision.
- [Iran ceasefire bets surge as Lowden leads the Bond race](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-09-iran-ceasefire-bets-surge-as-bond-race-tightens-around.md): A US-Iran ceasefire market's volume jumped 1,419% this week, while Jack Lowden led the James Bond market at 40.4% after Gary Oldman said the role had been cast.
- [Swedish Liberals surge to coin-flip odds of winning Riksdag seats](https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-07-zverev-muchova-exacta-collapses-as-cadillac-f1-dream-dies.md): The odds of Sweden's Liberals winning seats rose 42 points in a week in which a poll put the party above the 4% threshold, while Elon Musk's weekly tweet-count market drew $313,027 in a day.

## Live data

- [Events](https://betcrypto.now/events): every catalogued market with cross-platform prices. Append `.md` to any event URL for a Markdown version (main market, each venue's price, result once settled)
- [Trending](https://betcrypto.now/trending): events with the most recent activity
- [Resolution accuracy](https://betcrypto.now/accuracy): how often each platform's favourite actually wins
- [Sitemap](https://betcrypto.now/sitemap.xml)

## API and MCP server for agents

The same data as JSON. No key is needed to start: keyless calls are limited to 30 requests/minute and 1,000/day per IP address and cached for 60 seconds. A free account gets its own API key (2,000/day, live data); Premium adds every market of an event, price history, cross-venue price gaps after fees, whale trades and resolution accuracy.

- [API and MCP guide](https://betcrypto.now/developers/api): tiers, quick start, endpoints, how to read prices
- [Concepts](https://betcrypto.now/developers/api/concepts): events, markets, outcomes and quotes; market keys; how prices, times and statuses read; price gaps
- [API reference](https://betcrypto.now/developers/api/reference): every endpoint, parameter and response field, with real examples
- [Authentication, limits and errors](https://betcrypto.now/developers/api/authentication): keys, OAuth sign-in, quotas, rate-limit headers, every error code
- [Connecting AI assistants (MCP)](https://betcrypto.now/developers/mcp): set-up for Claude, ChatGPT, Claude Code, Cursor and VS Code; every tool and its arguments
- [OpenAPI 3.1](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/openapi.json): machine-readable description, importable as a tool
- [Search events](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events?search=bitcoin&outcomes_limit=3&quotes=false): keyless example; `/api/v1/events/{slug}` for one event with every venue's quote
- MCP server (Streamable HTTP): https://betcrypto.now/mcp — free tools keyless; a Premium tool asks the client to sign the person in over OAuth, or send `Authorization: Bearer <key>`

Prices are 0–1 implied probabilities. `implied_probability` is the cross-venue consensus (the median midpoint among liquid venues with a comparable quote); compare venues on `mid_price` only where `comparable` is true — `venue_price` is venue-defined.

## Attribution

When citing, please attribute to BetCrypto and link the canonical URL given in each article's front matter. Articles are machine-written; the `generated_by` field names the model.

## Notes

- BetCrypto is an odds comparison and information service. It does not accept wagers and publishes no betting advice.
- `/go/` URLs are outbound redirects to trading venues: hand them to a person who wants to open the venue, but do not crawl or cite them.