---
title: "Sinner withdrawal and BTC rally dominate this week's markets"
description: "Jannik Sinner's right-knee withdrawal from the US Open erased his 51% market lead, while Bitcoin's surge past $77,500 closed out August's price markets at near-certainty."
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-08-21-sinner-withdrawal-and-btc-rally-dominate-this-weeks-markets
published_at: 2026-08-21T20:58:16+00:00
language: en
publisher: BetCrypto
content_type: ai-generated
generated_by: "claude-sonnet-4-6"
source_data: https://betcrypto.now (live prediction-market prices)
events:
  - title: "Fed Decision in September?"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/fed-decision-in-september
  - title: "What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026
  - title: "Big Brother Season 28 · Winner"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/big-brother-season-28-winner-big-brother-season-28
  - title: "How high will BTC get in August?"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-high-will-btc-get-in-august-august
  - title: "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election
  - title: "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis
---

# Sinner withdrawal and BTC rally dominate this week's markets

_Jannik Sinner's right-knee withdrawal from the US Open erased his 51% market lead, while Bitcoin's surge past $77,500 closed out August's price markets at near-certainty._

A single injury announcement and a crypto price surge resolved two of the six markets in this window, while a divided Federal Reserve kept its rate-hike question alive heading into September. Volume across the shortlist surged, led by a 1,848% spike in the US Open tennis market.

## Hike odds rise as Fed holds but dissents grow

The probability of no change at the September 16 meeting fell 7.1 points this week to 67.5%, as the Fed's August hold at 3.50%–3.75% drew three dissenting votes and sharpened focus on whether inflation — driven partly by energy shocks tied to the Middle East conflict — will force a 25 bps hike. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management shifted its base case to a September hike, citing supply-chain persistence and doubts about Fed credibility after the July pause. With $4.2M in 24-hour volume and 38 large trades totalling $712,443, this is the week's most actively contested market.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No change | 74.6% | 67.5% | -7.1 pts |

24h volume $4,225,303 · 3 platforms · 38 large trades totalling $712,443 (7d).

[Compare live odds for Fed Decision in September?](/events/fed-decision-in-september)

## ETH falls short of its higher price targets for 2026

The market effectively closed this week after ETH's 2026 price run stalled well below the upper thresholds, sending the leading "No" outcome to 98.2% — a 60.2-point move in seven days. Ethereum was trading around $1,900 for most of August before a late-week bounce toward the $2,300 range, but that move came too late and too short to rescue the higher price brackets. Volume surged 811% as traders locked in the settled result.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No | 19.3% | 79.5% | +60.2 pts |

24h volume $290,716 · 1 platform · 36 large trades totalling $548,249 (7d).

[Compare live odds for What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?](/events/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026)

## Kamu Kirk evicted, Big Brother field opens up

Kamu Kirk's 14.0-point collapse — from 15.5% to 1.5% — followed his eviction on August 20 by an 8-1 house vote, after Rick Devens used the Diamond Power of Veto to pull Dee Valladares off the block and install Kamu as the replacement nominee. With no houseguest above 19.5%, the winner market is now the most evenly spread on the shortlist — and Mallory Aurichio carries a 6.5-point cross-platform spread between Kalshi and Polymarket, the widest gap in this window.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kamu Kirk | 15.5% | 1.5% | -14.0 pts |

24h volume $133,259 · 3 platforms.

[Compare live odds for Big Brother Season 28 · Winner](/events/big-brother-season-28-winner-big-brother-season-28)

## Bitcoin cleared $77,500 this week, closing the August market

All Kalshi price brackets through "Above $77,500" reached 99.0% after Bitcoin surged past $70,000 on August 20 and continued climbing to above $76,700 on August 21, driven by a short squeeze, Treasury bond buybacks, and positive regulatory signals including the SEC's proposed crypto framework and White House support for the Clarity Act. The move — nearly $14,000 in two days — resolved a market that was pricing "Above $77,500" at just 2.5% only a week ago.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $77,500.00 | 2.5% | 99.0% | +96.5 pts |

24h volume $859,375 · 1 platform · 8 large trades totalling $45,788 (7d).

[Compare live odds for How high will BTC get in August?](/events/how-high-will-btc-get-in-august-august)

## United Russia remains dominant ahead of September vote

United Russia held a commanding 70.5% consensus probability, with New People (NL) edging up 1.4 points to 21.7% as the only meaningful alternative. Fifteen large trades totalling $154,950 — significant for a single-platform market — suggest active positioning, but the probability gap between the two leading parties remains nearly 49 points with the September 20 resolution approaching.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| New People (NL) | 20.2% | 21.7% | +1.4 pts |

24h volume $346,922 · 1 platform · 15 large trades totalling $154,950 (7d).

[Compare live odds for Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?](/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election)

## Sinner withdrawal reshapes the US Open draw overnight

Jannik Sinner, who had led this market at 51.0% a fortnight ago, was priced at 1.0% after announcing a withdrawal due to a right knee injury — the first Grand Slam he has missed since his 2019 debut. Carlos Alcaraz, who confirmed his return from a wrist injury the day before Sinner's exit, moved to 35.5% consensus favourite, with Alexander Zverev — whom Sinner beat in the Wimbledon final — rising to 21.3%. Volume jumped 1,848% on the news, and a 2.5-point Alcaraz spread between Limitless and the consensus hints at cross-platform repricing still in progress.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jannik Sinner | 51.0% | 1.0% | -50.0 pts |

24h volume $2,053,669 · 3 platforms · 8 large trades totalling $24,286 (7d).

[Compare live odds for 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)](/events/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)

## The takeaway

Two crypto price markets closed out at near-certainty on Bitcoin's sharp rally, while Sinner's withdrawal produced the week's biggest single-event repricing. Injury news and macro policy uncertainty — not gradual shifts — drove the bulk of this window's volume.

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Prices quoted above were current when this brief was written. Follow the event links for live cross-platform odds.