---
title: "Hormuz deal reports lift reopening odds as MrBeast and MLS markets move"
description: "Reports of a phased US-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz, a MrBeast video, and the MLS title race drove the week's sharpest prediction market moves."
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/news/2026-09-25-hormuz-deal-rumours-and-college-football-tip-a-busy
published_at: 2026-09-25T20:20:58+00:00
language: en
publisher: BetCrypto
content_type: ai-generated
generated_by: "claude-sonnet-4-6"
source_data: https://betcrypto.now (live prediction-market prices)
events:
  - title: "# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-polymarket-254b2bf8
  - title: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31
  - title: "MLS Cup Winner 2026"
    url: https://betcrypto.now/events/mls-cup-winner-2026
---

# Hormuz deal reports lift reopening odds as MrBeast and MLS markets move

_Reports of a phased US-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz, a MrBeast video, and the MLS title race drove the week's sharpest prediction market moves._

Geopolitical odds shifted on reports of a US-Iran phased agreement over the Strait of Hormuz. A MrBeast view-count market and surging MLS Cup interest rounded out the window.

## MrBeast Ghana video on track for 70-80M week-one views

The 70-80M outcome surged 67.7 points to 87.5% after MrBeast posted a video documenting the construction of an entire village in Ghana, on which he said he spent $10 million. Third-party tracking data showed his September 19 upload accumulating roughly 59.5 million views within its first two days, pushing the market firmly away from lower bands and toward the 70-80M bracket. The market resolves Saturday and is effectively settled on current trajectory.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 70-80M | 19.8% | 87.5% | +67.7 pts |

24h volume $107,531 · 1 platform.

[Compare live odds for # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?](/events/of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-polymarket-254b2bf8)

## Hormuz reopening odds climb on US-Iran deal reports

The "Yes" outcome gained 9.5 points to 27.5% on the back of reports that the US and Iran are exploring a phased agreement to reopen the strait and lift the naval blockade, though the market still prices a 72.5% probability that traffic does not normalise by year-end. As of September 20, IMF PortWatch recorded just one transit against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 per day, and shipping services noted traffic remained well below normal through September 24. Forty-one large trades totalling $292,796 drove the week's volume, indicating sophisticated money behind the move.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 18.0% | 27.5% | +9.5 pts |

24h volume $182,417 · 2 platforms · 41 large trades totalling $292,796 (7d).

[Compare live odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?](/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)

## Vancouver Whitecaps extend MLS Cup lead near playoff clinch

Vancouver Whitecaps FC rose 5.4 points to 23.5% favouritism as the club sits first in the Western Conference and was on the verge of clinching a playoff berth heading into Matchday 28. The Whitecaps reached the 2025 MLS Cup final as runners-up and carry momentum as the defending Canadian Championship winners into this year's postseason push. A 2.7-point cross-platform spread between Polymarket and Kalshi suggests some disagreement on how far that form translates to a championship.

| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.1% | 23.5% | +5.4 pts |

24h volume $212,213 · 2 platforms · 1 large trade totalling $1,306 (7d).

[Compare live odds for MLS Cup Winner 2026](/events/mls-cup-winner-2026)

## The takeaway

The window's largest deliberate trades went to the Hormuz market, a question that resolves at year-end, while the MrBeast and MLS markets moved on view counts and league form.

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*Corrected on 7 October 2026: we removed sections that misreported game results or price moves, and fixed other errors of fact.*

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Prices quoted above were current when this brief was written. Follow the event links for live cross-platform odds.