2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — At the release of the national House popular vote data
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democrats 0-2% | 1.8%Polymarket | $253.5K | — | — | — | — | ||
Republicans 0-2% | 4.9%Polymarket | $6.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democrats 2-4% Widest spread 2.9% | 3.3%Kalshi | $168.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
Republicans 2-4% | 2.9%Polymarket | $30.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democrats 4-6% | 8.7%Kalshi | $84.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
Democrats 6-8% | 18.0%Kalshi | $119.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
Democrats 8-10% Favorite | 25.0%Kalshi | $161.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
Democrats 10-12% | 22.0%Kalshi | $136.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
Democrats 12-14% | 11.0%Kalshi | $102.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
Democrats 14-16% | 2.2%Polymarket | $73.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Democrats 16%+ | 1.3%Polymarket | $119.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Republicans win | 6.7%Kalshi | $538.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
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