GAPS
520 gaps
354/520 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 46.0%Kalshi | 48.8%Polymarket | $9.1K | ~778d | −2.7¢ | 2.5¢ | $237 | 2.6% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israe… | 27.0%Kalshi | 71.0%Polymarket | $18.8K | ~101d | −1.4¢ | 0.6¢ | $119 | 0.6% |
| Ron DeSantis | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2.9%Polymarket | 95.7%Kalshi | $5.2K | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 1.0¢ | $53 | 1.0% |
| Democratic | Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Electi… | 59.0%Kalshi | 34.0%Polymarket | $1.1K | ~778d | −2.6¢ | 4.4¢ | $53 | 4.7% |
| Renate Reinsve | Oscar winner: Best Actress — In 2027 | 4.0%Kalshi | 92.0%Polymarket | $1.2K | ~175d | −0.6¢ | 3.4¢ | $41 | 3.5% |
| Democratic | Maine Senate Election Winner | 71.0%Polymarket | 20.0%Kalshi | $455 | ~43d | −1.9¢ | 7.1¢ | $35 | 7.8% |
| Democratic | New Hampshire Senate Election Winner | 81.0%Polymarket | 15.0%Polymarket US | $956 | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $25 | 2.6% |
| Republican | New Hampshire Senate Election Winner | 15.0%Polymarket US | 82.0%Polymarket | $1.4K | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $22 | 1.6% |
| San Francisco | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 9.0%Kalshi | 85.0%Polymarket | $387 | ~126d | −1.0¢ | 5.0¢ | $21 | 5.4% |
| Kamala Harris | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 8.1%Kalshi | 88.0%Polymarket US | $746 | ~690d | −1.3¢ | 2.6¢ | $21 | 2.8% |
| Republican | OH-09 House Election Winner | 26.0%Polymarket | 69.0%Polymarket US | $684 | ~44d | −2.3¢ | 2.7¢ | $20 | 2.9% |
| Marco Rubio | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 8.9%Polymarket | 86.0%Gemini | $463 | ~778d | −1.2¢ | 3.9¢ | $19 | 4.1% |
| Green Bay | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 3.0%Kalshi | 95.0%Polymarket | $1.1K | ~126d | −0.3¢ | 1.7¢ | $18 | 1.7% |
| OpenAI | Which AI company will have the best coding m… | 9.0%Polymarket US | 81.0%Kalshi | $189 | ~102d | −1.6¢ | 8.4¢ | $18 | 9.3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 2.7%Polymarket | 96.0%Gemini | $1.8K | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $17 | 0.9% |
| Detroit Lions | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 4.0%Kalshi | 93.0%Polymarket | $641 | ~126d | −0.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $17 | 2.6% |
| Dalton Kincaid | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 20… | 4.0%Kalshi | 89.0%Gemini | $256 | ~112d | −1.0¢ | 6.0¢ | $17 | 6.5% |
| UPGRADE | UPGRADE vs ILLYRIANS | 71.0%Polymarket | 25.0%Polymarket US | $957 | ~1d | −2.3¢ | 1.7¢ | $17 | 1.7% |
| ILLYRIANS | UPGRADE vs ILLYRIANS | 25.0%Polymarket US | 71.0%Polymarket | $957 | ~1d | −2.3¢ | 1.7¢ | $17 | 1.7% |
| Republican | Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Electi… | 36.0%Polymarket US | 59.0%Kalshi | $919 | ~779d | −3.3¢ | 1.7¢ | $17 | 1.8% |
| Yes Above 4.5% | How high will inflation get in 2026? | 19.0%Polymarket | 74.0%Kalshi | $282 | ~102d | −2.1¢ | 4.9¢ | $15 | 5.3% |
| 4 | How many dissenting votes at the October Fed… | 8.0%Kalshi | 84.0%Polymarket | $184 | ~38d | −1.2¢ | 6.8¢ | $14 | 7.4% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County W… | 15.0%Polymarket US | 70.0%Polymarket | $86 | ~44d | −1.7¢ | 13.3¢ | $13 | 15.6% |
| OpenAI | Which companies will have a top-ranked AI mo… | 33.0%Kalshi | 60.0%Polymarket US | $319 | ~102d | −3.2¢ | 3.8¢ | $13 | 4.1% |
| Democratic | Minnesota Senate winner? — In 2026 | 90.4%Kalshi | 8.0%Polymarket | $1.8K | ~43d | −0.9¢ | 0.7¢ | $13 | 0.7% |
| Tucker Kraft | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 20… | 3.0%Kalshi | 95.0%Gemini | $817 | ~112d | −0.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $12 | 1.5% |
| Isaiah Likely | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 20… | 6.0%Kalshi | 88.0%Gemini | $235 | ~112d | −1.1¢ | 4.9¢ | $12 | 5.2% |
| Marine Le Pen | Next French Presidential Election | 37.6%Polymarket | 58.0%Polymarket US | $571 | ~203d | −2.6¢ | 1.8¢ | $11 | 1.8% |
| Yes | Will there be a recession in 2027? | 26.0%Kalshi | 66.0%Polymarket | $165 | ~467d | −2.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $10 | 6.0% |
| No | Will there be a recession in 2027? | 66.0%Polymarket | 26.0%Kalshi | $165 | ~467d | −2.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $10 | 6.0% |
| Vladimir Putin | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 62.0%Polymarket US | 32.0%Polymarket | $257 | ~102d | −2.5¢ | 3.5¢ | $10 | 3.7% |
| No | Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular … | 77.0%Polymarket US | 11.0%Polymarket | $70 | ~112d | −1.7¢ | 10.3¢ | $8 | 11.7% |
| Yes | Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular … | 11.0%Polymarket | 77.0%Polymarket US | $70 | ~112d | −1.7¢ | 10.3¢ | $8 | 11.7% |
| Republican | KY-06 House Election Winner | 74.0%Polymarket | 23.0%Kalshi | $787 | ~44d | −2.0¢ | 1.0¢ | $8 | 1.0% |
| Overheating | US economic state at the end of 2026? | 72.9%Kalshi | 23.0%Polymarket | $364 | ~115d | −2.3¢ | 1.8¢ | $7 | 1.9% |
| Marco Rubio | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 15.7%Polymarket | 80.0%Kalshi | $245 | ~778d | −1.6¢ | 2.7¢ | $7 | 2.8% |
| Pete Hegseth | Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Durin… | 10.0%Polymarket | 79.0%Kalshi | $62 | ~102d | −1.5¢ | 9.5¢ | $7 | 10.7% |
| Elissa Slotkin | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028 | 5.7%Polymarket | 89.0%Gemini | $142 | ~689d | −0.9¢ | 4.4¢ | $7 | 4.6% |
| Republican party | MN-02 House winner? — In 2026 | 5.9%Polymarket | 92.3%Kalshi | $589 | ~45d | −0.7¢ | 1.1¢ | $6 | 1.1% |
| No 24.5+ passing TDs | Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Se… | 30.0%Polymarket | 61.0%Polymarket US | $91 | ~112d | −2.7¢ | 6.3¢ | $6 | 6.9% |
| Yes 24.5+ passing TDs | Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Se… | 61.0%Polymarket US | 30.0%Polymarket | $91 | ~112d | −2.7¢ | 6.3¢ | $6 | 6.9% |
| Duke | Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — 202… | 12.0%Kalshi | 83.0%Polymarket US | $167 | ~197d | −1.7¢ | 3.3¢ | $6 | 3.5% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Pro Football Receiving Yards Leader — 2026-2… | 10.0%Polymarket US | 85.0%Polymarket | $144 | ~112d | −1.3¢ | 3.7¢ | $6 | 3.9% |
| Mark Kelly | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 3.1%Polymarket | 96.1%Kalshi | $1.3K | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $5 | 0.4% |
| Denis Villeneuve | Oscar Winner: Best Director — In 2027 | 14.0%Kalshi | 80.0%Polymarket | $113 | ~175d | −1.6¢ | 4.4¢ | $5 | 4.6% |
| SK Slovan Bratislava | UEFA Champions League: League Phase Last Pla… | 16.0%Polymarket US | 76.0%Polymarket | $78 | ~129d | −1.8¢ | 6.2¢ | $5 | 6.7% |
| 120 to 125MILLION | 2026 Midterms: House Turnout | 17.0%Polymarket | 78.0%Polymarket US | $148 | ~43d | −1.8¢ | 3.2¢ | $5 | 3.4% |
| Republican | New Hampshire Governor winner? — In 2026 | 89.0%Kalshi | 9.0%Polymarket | $486 | ~43d | −1.0¢ | 1.0¢ | $5 | 1.0% |
| Republican Party | WA-05 House Election Winner | 81.0%Polymarket | 17.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | ~43d | −1.6¢ | 0.4¢ | $5 | 0.4% |
| Darian Mensah | Pro Football #1 Overall Pick in 2027 — 1st P… | 12.0%Kalshi | 84.4%Polymarket | $174 | ~214d | −1.1¢ | 2.5¢ | $4 | 2.6% |
J.D. Vance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at46.0%KalshiBuy opposite48.8%Polymarket
Profit$237Return2.6%
Capital$9.1KHold~778dFees−2.7¢Net edge2.5¢
Benjamin Netanyahu
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Buy at27.0%KalshiBuy opposite71.0%Polymarket
Profit$119Return0.6%
Capital$18.8KHold~101dFees−1.4¢Net edge0.6¢
Ron DeSantis
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at2.9%PolymarketBuy opposite95.7%Kalshi
Profit$53Return1.0%
Capital$5.2KHold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge1.0¢
Democratic
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Buy at59.0%KalshiBuy opposite34.0%Polymarket
Profit$53Return4.7%
Capital$1.1KHold~778dFees−2.6¢Net edge4.4¢
Renate Reinsve
Oscar winner: Best Actress — In 2027Buy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$41Return3.5%
Capital$1.2KHold~175dFees−0.6¢Net edge3.4¢
Democratic
Maine Senate Election WinnerBuy at71.0%PolymarketBuy opposite20.0%Kalshi
Profit$35Return7.8%
Capital$455Hold~43dFees−1.9¢Net edge7.1¢
Democratic
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerBuy at81.0%PolymarketBuy opposite15.0%Polymarket US
Profit$25Return2.6%
Capital$956Hold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Republican
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerBuy at15.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite82.0%Polymarket
Profit$22Return1.6%
Capital$1.4KHold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge1.5¢
San Francisco
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at9.0%KalshiBuy opposite85.0%Polymarket
Profit$21Return5.4%
Capital$387Hold~126dFees−1.0¢Net edge5.0¢
Kamala Harris
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at8.1%KalshiBuy opposite88.0%Polymarket US
Profit$21Return2.8%
Capital$746Hold~690dFees−1.3¢Net edge2.6¢
Republican
OH-09 House Election WinnerBuy at26.0%PolymarketBuy opposite69.0%Polymarket US
Profit$20Return2.9%
Capital$684Hold~44dFees−2.3¢Net edge2.7¢
Marco Rubio
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at8.9%PolymarketBuy opposite86.0%Gemini
Profit$19Return4.1%
Capital$463Hold~778dFees−1.2¢Net edge3.9¢
Green Bay
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.0%Polymarket
Profit$18Return1.7%
Capital$1.1KHold~126dFees−0.3¢Net edge1.7¢
OpenAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026Buy at9.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite81.0%Kalshi
Profit$18Return9.3%
Capital$189Hold~102dFees−1.6¢Net edge8.4¢
Pete Buttigieg
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at2.7%PolymarketBuy opposite96.0%Gemini
Profit$17Return0.9%
Capital$1.8KHold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.9¢
Detroit Lions
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite93.0%Polymarket
Profit$17Return2.6%
Capital$641Hold~126dFees−0.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Dalton Kincaid
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Gemini
Profit$17Return6.5%
Capital$256Hold~112dFees−1.0¢Net edge6.0¢
UPGRADE
UPGRADE vs ILLYRIANSBuy at71.0%PolymarketBuy opposite25.0%Polymarket US
Profit$17Return1.7%
Capital$957Hold~1dFees−2.3¢Net edge1.7¢
ILLYRIANS
UPGRADE vs ILLYRIANSBuy at25.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite71.0%Polymarket
Profit$17Return1.7%
Capital$957Hold~1dFees−2.3¢Net edge1.7¢
Republican
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Buy at36.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite59.0%Kalshi
Profit$17Return1.8%
Capital$919Hold~779dFees−3.3¢Net edge1.7¢
YesAbove 4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?Buy at19.0%PolymarketBuy opposite74.0%Kalshi
Profit$15Return5.3%
Capital$282Hold~102dFees−2.1¢Net edge4.9¢
4
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting? — October 2026Buy at8.0%KalshiBuy opposite84.0%Polymarket
Profit$14Return7.4%
Capital$184Hold~38dFees−1.2¢Net edge6.8¢
Angie Nixon (D)
Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County WinnerBuy at15.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite70.0%Polymarket
Profit$13Return15.6%
Capital$86Hold~44dFees−1.7¢Net edge13.3¢
OpenAI
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? — In 2026Buy at33.0%KalshiBuy opposite60.0%Polymarket US
Profit$13Return4.1%
Capital$319Hold~102dFees−3.2¢Net edge3.8¢
Democratic
Minnesota Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at90.4%KalshiBuy opposite8.0%Polymarket
Profit$13Return0.7%
Capital$1.8KHold~43dFees−0.9¢Net edge0.7¢
Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.0%Gemini
Profit$12Return1.5%
Capital$817Hold~112dFees−0.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Isaiah Likely
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at6.0%KalshiBuy opposite88.0%Gemini
Profit$12Return5.2%
Capital$235Hold~112dFees−1.1¢Net edge4.9¢
Marine Le Pen
Next French Presidential ElectionBuy at37.6%PolymarketBuy opposite58.0%Polymarket US
Profit$11Return1.8%
Capital$571Hold~203dFees−2.6¢Net edge1.8¢
Yes
Will there be a recession in 2027?Buy at26.0%KalshiBuy opposite66.0%Polymarket
Profit$10Return6.0%
Capital$165Hold~467dFees−2.5¢Net edge5.5¢
No
Will there be a recession in 2027?Buy at66.0%PolymarketBuy opposite26.0%Kalshi
Profit$10Return6.0%
Capital$165Hold~467dFees−2.5¢Net edge5.5¢
Vladimir Putin
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Buy at62.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite32.0%Polymarket
Profit$10Return3.7%
Capital$257Hold~102dFees−2.5¢Net edge3.5¢
No
Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving TouchdownsBuy at77.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite11.0%Polymarket
Profit$8Return11.7%
Capital$70Hold~112dFees−1.7¢Net edge10.3¢
Yes
Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving TouchdownsBuy at11.0%PolymarketBuy opposite77.0%Polymarket US
Profit$8Return11.7%
Capital$70Hold~112dFees−1.7¢Net edge10.3¢
Republican
KY-06 House Election WinnerBuy at74.0%PolymarketBuy opposite23.0%Kalshi
Profit$8Return1.0%
Capital$787Hold~44dFees−2.0¢Net edge1.0¢
Overheating
US economic state at the end of 2026?Buy at72.9%KalshiBuy opposite23.0%Polymarket
Profit$7Return1.9%
Capital$364Hold~115dFees−2.3¢Net edge1.8¢
Marco Rubio
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at15.7%PolymarketBuy opposite80.0%Kalshi
Profit$7Return2.8%
Capital$245Hold~778dFees−1.6¢Net edge2.7¢
Pete Hegseth
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — During Trump's termBuy at10.0%PolymarketBuy opposite79.0%Kalshi
Profit$7Return10.7%
Capital$62Hold~102dFees−1.5¢Net edge9.5¢
Elissa Slotkin
2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028Buy at5.7%PolymarketBuy opposite89.0%Gemini
Profit$7Return4.6%
Capital$142Hold~689dFees−0.9¢Net edge4.4¢
Republican party
MN-02 House winner? — In 2026Buy at5.9%PolymarketBuy opposite92.3%Kalshi
Profit$6Return1.1%
Capital$589Hold~45dFees−0.7¢Net edge1.1¢
No24.5+ passing TDs
Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Season Passing TouchdownsBuy at30.0%PolymarketBuy opposite61.0%Polymarket US
Profit$6Return6.9%
Capital$91Hold~112dFees−2.7¢Net edge6.3¢
Yes24.5+ passing TDs
Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Season Passing TouchdownsBuy at61.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite30.0%Polymarket
Profit$6Return6.9%
Capital$91Hold~112dFees−2.7¢Net edge6.3¢
Duke
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — 2026-27 SeasonBuy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite83.0%Polymarket US
Profit$6Return3.5%
Capital$167Hold~197dFees−1.7¢Net edge3.3¢
Ja'Marr Chase
Pro Football Receiving Yards Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at10.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite85.0%Polymarket
Profit$6Return3.9%
Capital$144Hold~112dFees−1.3¢Net edge3.7¢
Mark Kelly
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at3.1%PolymarketBuy opposite96.1%Kalshi
Profit$5Return0.4%
Capital$1.3KHold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.4¢
Denis Villeneuve
Oscar Winner: Best Director — In 2027Buy at14.0%KalshiBuy opposite80.0%Polymarket
Profit$5Return4.6%
Capital$113Hold~175dFees−1.6¢Net edge4.4¢
SK Slovan Bratislava
UEFA Champions League: League Phase Last PlaceBuy at16.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite76.0%Polymarket
Profit$5Return6.7%
Capital$78Hold~129dFees−1.8¢Net edge6.2¢
120 to 125MILLION
2026 Midterms: House TurnoutBuy at17.0%PolymarketBuy opposite78.0%Polymarket US
Profit$5Return3.4%
Capital$148Hold~43dFees−1.8¢Net edge3.2¢
Republican
New Hampshire Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at89.0%KalshiBuy opposite9.0%Polymarket
Profit$5Return1.0%
Capital$486Hold~43dFees−1.0¢Net edge1.0¢
Republican Party
WA-05 House Election WinnerBuy at81.0%PolymarketBuy opposite17.0%Kalshi
Profit$5Return0.4%
Capital$1.1KHold~43dFees−1.6¢Net edge0.4¢
Darian Mensah
Pro Football #1 Overall Pick in 2027 — 1st Pick 2027Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite84.4%Polymarket
Profit$4Return2.6%
Capital$174Hold~214dFees−1.1¢Net edge2.5¢
Showing 1–50 of 520