Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 — On Jan 1, 2027 at 12am EST
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19,999.99 or below | 0.7%Kalshi | $685.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
20,000 to 24,999.99 | 0.6%Kalshi | $794.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
25,000 to 29,999.99 | 0.7%Kalshi | $626.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
30,000 to 34,999.99 | 1.1%Kalshi | $814.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
35,000 to 39,999.99 | 1.1%Kalshi | $1.6M | — | — | — | — | ||
40,000 to 44,999.99 | 1.5%Kalshi | $1.7M | — | — | — | — | ||
45,000 to 49,999.99 | 1.2%Kalshi | $2.4M | — | — | — | — | ||
50,000 to 54,999.99 | 1.9%Kalshi | $2.4M | — | — | — | — | ||
55,000 to 59,999.99 | 2.4%Kalshi | $2.2M | — | — | — | — | ||
60,000 to 64,999.99 | 3.9%Kalshi | $2.3M | — | — | — | — | ||
65,000 to 69,999.99 | 5.7%Kalshi | $2.4M | — | — | — | — | ||
70,000 to 74,999.99 | 7.8%Kalshi | $2.4M | — | — | — | — | ||
75,000 to 79,999.99 | 10.9%Kalshi | $2.8M | — | — | — | — | ||
80,000 to 84,999.99 FavoriteWidest spread 7.1% | 12.9%Kalshi | $2.3M | — | — | — | — | ||
85,000 to 89,999.99 | 12.6%Kalshi | $2.0M | — | — | — | — | ||
90,000 to 94,999.99 | 9.5%Kalshi | $1.3M | — | — | — | — | ||
95,000 to 99,999.99 | 6.9%Kalshi | $681.0K | — | — | — | — | ||
100,000 to 104,999.99 | 3.8%Kalshi | $743.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
105,000 to 109,999.99 | 2.8%Kalshi | $578.0K | — | — | — | — | ||
110,000 to 114,999.99 | 2.1%Kalshi | $511.5K | — | — | — | — | ||
115,000 to 119,999.99 | 1.4%Kalshi | $447.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
120,000 to 124,999.99 | 0.7%Kalshi | $553.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
125,000 to 129,999.99 | 0.7%Kalshi | $484.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
130,000 to 134,999.99 | 0.3%Kalshi | $460.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
135,000 to 139,999.99 | 0.7%Kalshi | $479.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
140,000 to 144,999.99 | 0.4%Kalshi | $525.4K | — | — | — | — | ||
145,000 to 149,999.99 | 0.5%Kalshi | $596.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
150,000 or above | 2.0%Polymarket US | $2.1M | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks where Bitcoin's price will land at midnight EST on January 1, 2027, resolved using CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index — the average of 60 price readings taken in the final minute before expiry. Outcomes span from below $20,000 all the way to $150,000 or above, with each $5,000 band representing a discrete result. The market carries over $36.7 million in total volume and nearly $9.6 million in liquidity, almost entirely on Kalshi; Polymarket US shows no active volume. The narrow $75,000–$79,999 band is the current consensus favourite at 14.5%, followed closely by $80,000–$84,999 at 13.8% and $85,000–$89,999 at 13.0%. The concentration of probability across these three adjacent bands — a combined ~41% — reflects where Bitcoin is actually trading right now. Bitcoin was sitting near $77,566 as of September 16, and the 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA, printing a golden cross for the first time this year — a technical signal that may be anchoring market expectations modestly to the upside. Notably, Bitcoin ended 2025 about 30% below the all-time high it hit in October of that year, which helps explain why the probability mass clusters well below prior cycle peaks. The most notable cross-platform discrepancy is in the $80,000–$84,999 bucket, where Polymarket US quotes an outlier 49.0% against Kalshi's 13.8% — a gap almost certainly reflecting Polymarket's thin or stale liquidity rather than genuine disagreement. Elsewhere, spreads are modest, generally under 2 points. With no single bucket clearing 15%, the market effectively signals deep uncertainty over a 3.5-month horizon, and Kalshi's well-capitalised order book remains the more reliable pricing reference across all outcomes.
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