GAPS
505 gaps
340/505 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | League Phase Top Finisher — 2026-27 | 33.0%Polymarket US | 56.0%Kalshi | $20 | ~129d | −3.3¢ | 7.7¢ | $2 | 8.7% |
| Virginia Tech | College Football ACC Championship Game Quali… | 16.0%Kalshi | 80.0%Polymarket US | $83 | ~76d | −2.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $2 | 2.0% |
| Alfonso Sánchez García | Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner | 11.0%Kalshi | 82.0%Polymarket | $27 | ~259d | −1.3¢ | 5.7¢ | $2 | 6.2% |
| Texas Tech | College Football Big 12 Championship Winner … | 37.0%Kalshi | 59.0%Polymarket | $134 | ~104d | −2.8¢ | 1.2¢ | $2 | 1.2% |
| Democratic Party | FL-26 House Election Winner | 7.0%Polymarket | 92.0%Kalshi | $711 | ~43d | −0.8¢ | 0.2¢ | $2 | 0.2% |
| Oregon | College Football Playoff National Championsh… | 9.0%Kalshi | 86.0%Polymarket US | $41 | ~117d | −1.4¢ | 3.6¢ | $2 | 3.8% |
| Yes December 31 | US-Iran nuclear deal? — In 2026 | 9.6%Kalshi | 89.0%Polymarket | $189 | ~102d | −0.6¢ | 0.8¢ | $2 | 0.8% |
| Marine Le Pen | Next French Presidential Election | 37.4%Polymarket | 58.0%Polymarket US | $72 | ~203d | −2.6¢ | 2.0¢ | $1 | 2.1% |
| Democratic | New York Governor winner? — In 2026 | 93.1%Kalshi | 6.0%Polymarket | $625 | ~43d | −0.7¢ | 0.2¢ | $1 | 0.2% |
| Democratic Party | WA-04 House Election Winner | 5.0%Kalshi | 93.0%Polymarket | $98 | ~44d | −0.6¢ | 1.4¢ | $1 | 1.4% |
| Democratic Party | MA-01 House Election Winner | 92.6%Kalshi | 6.0%Polymarket | $197 | ~44d | −0.7¢ | 0.7¢ | $1 | 0.7% |
| Soft landing | US economic state at the end of 2026? | 21.0%Polymarket | 74.9%Kalshi | $68 | ~115d | −2.1¢ | 2.0¢ | $1 | 2.0% |
| Democratic Party | WA-05 House Election Winner | 16.0%Kalshi | 82.2%Polymarket | $471 | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Pope Leo XIV | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 4.7%Polymarket | 89.0%Polymarket US | $22 | ~102d | −0.9¢ | 5.4¢ | $1 | 5.8% |
| Rastislav Mochnacký | Prešov Mayoral Election Winner | 27.0%Polymarket | 70.0%Kalshi | $170 | ~34d | −2.3¢ | 0.7¢ | $1 | 0.8% |
| No 9.5+ rushing TDs | Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Sea… | 18.0%Polymarket US | 72.0%Polymarket | $14 | ~112d | −2.0¢ | 8.0¢ | $1 | 8.9% |
| Yes 9.5+ rushing TDs | Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Sea… | 72.0%Polymarket | 18.0%Polymarket US | $14 | ~112d | −2.0¢ | 8.0¢ | $1 | 8.9% |
| Juliana Stratton | Illinois Senate Election Winner | 97.0%Gemini | 2.3%Kalshi | $357 | ~50d | −0.4¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Dak Prescott | Pro Football Passing Yards Leader — 2026-202… | 5.0%Kalshi | 93.0%Polymarket | $87 | ~114d | −0.7¢ | 1.3¢ | $1 | 1.4% |
| Alibaba | Best Chinese AI Company end of September? | 88.0%Polymarket US | 9.0%Polymarket | $60 | ~10d | −1.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $1 | 2.0% |
| 80,000 to 84,999.99 | Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 — On Jan 1,… | 13.3%Kalshi | 81.0%Polymarket US | $29 | ~102d | −1.9¢ | 3.8¢ | $1 | 4.1% |
| Democratic | New Jersey Senate winner? — In 2026 | 97.0%Polymarket | 2.1%Kalshi | $179 | ~43d | −0.3¢ | 0.6¢ | $1 | 0.6% |
| Republican | NY-21 House Election Winner | 77.0%Polymarket | 20.0%Kalshi | $95 | ~43d | −1.8¢ | 1.2¢ | $1 | 1.2% |
| Wes Moore | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028 | 4.0%Polymarket | 93.0%Gemini | $46 | ~689d | −0.6¢ | 2.4¢ | $1 | 2.5% |
| Oregon | College Football Big Ten Championship Game Q… | 30.0%Kalshi | 65.0%Polymarket US | $54 | ~76d | −3.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $1 | 2.1% |
| Kylian Mbappé | Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 | 7.5%Polymarket | 89.0%Polymarket US | $41 | ~36d | −0.9¢ | 2.6¢ | $1 | 2.7% |
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 52.0%Polymarket US | 43.0%Polymarket | $41 | ~2d | −2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $1 | 2.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 43.0%Polymarket | 52.0%Polymarket US | $41 | ~2d | −2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $1 | 2.7% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | 12.2%Polymarket | 86.0%Kalshi | $196 | ~68d | −1.3¢ | 0.5¢ | $1 | 0.5% |
| The Debut | Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner | 32.0%Kalshi | 63.2%Polymarket | $48 | ~175d | −2.7¢ | 2.1¢ | $1 | 2.2% |
| Lost Weekend | Grammy winner: Album of the Year — In 2027 | 3.0%Kalshi | 96.0%Polymarket | $171 | ~140d | −0.4¢ | 0.6¢ | $1 | 0.6% |
| The Art of Loving | Grammy winner: Album of the Year — In 2027 | 12.0%Kalshi | 86.0%Polymarket | $153 | ~140d | −1.3¢ | 0.7¢ | $1 | 0.7% |
| End of Beginning | Top Song 2026 | 72.5%Polymarket | 22.0%Polymarket US | $28 | ~73d | −2.2¢ | 3.3¢ | $1 | 3.5% |
| Democratic | NJ-07 House winner? — In 2026 | 81.0%Kalshi | 17.0%Polymarket | $255 | ~44d | −1.6¢ | 0.4¢ | $1 | 0.4% |
| Kim Jong Un | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 15.0%Polymarket US | 78.0%Polymarket | $16 | ~102d | −1.6¢ | 5.4¢ | $1 | 5.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | MLB: 2026 American League Champion | 25.2%Polymarket | 71.0%Gemini | $48 | ~41d | −2.0¢ | 1.8¢ | $1 | 1.9% |
| Kamala Harris | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 4.0%Gemini | 95.4%Polymarket | $568 | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 0.2¢ | $1 | 0.2% |
| Republican | NM-02 House Election Winner | 8.0%Polymarket | 91.0%Kalshi | $652 | ~45d | −0.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | 0.1% |
| Denis Villeneuve | Oscar Winner: Best Director — In 2027 | 14.0%Kalshi | 80.0%Polymarket | $19 | ~175d | −1.6¢ | 4.4¢ | $1 | 4.6% |
| Josh Shapiro | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 4.7%Kalshi | 94.4%Polymarket | $225 | ~778d | −0.5¢ | 0.4¢ | $1 | 0.4% |
| Republican | Maine Senate Election Winner | 18.0%Kalshi | 70.0%Polymarket | $7 | ~43d | −1.9¢ | 10.1¢ | $1 | 11.5% |
| Republican | Alabama Governor winner? — In 2026 | 93.3%Kalshi | 4.2%Polymarket | $43 | ~43d | −0.6¢ | 1.9¢ | $1 | 2.0% |
| Robert Pattinson | Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor — In 202… | 10.8%Polymarket | 81.0%Kalshi | $11 | ~175d | −1.6¢ | 6.6¢ | $1 | 7.2% |
| Choosin’ Texas | Top Song on Spotify U.S in 2026? | 91.0%Polymarket US | 5.9%Polymarket | $34 | ~73d | −0.8¢ | 2.3¢ | $1 | 2.3% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 13.0%Kalshi | 83.0%Polymarket | $27 | ~126d | −1.2¢ | 2.8¢ | $1 | 2.9% |
| Joe Burrow | Pro Football Passing Yards Leader — 2026-202… | 4.0%Polymarket US | 92.0%Polymarket | $22 | ~112d | −0.6¢ | 3.4¢ | $1 | 3.5% |
| Mike Rounds | South Dakota Senate winner? — In 2026 | 92.0%Gemini | 5.2%Polymarket | $35 | ~43d | −0.7¢ | 2.1¢ | $1 | 2.1% |
| Republican | KY-04 House Election Winner | 94.5%Kalshi | 4.4%Polymarket | $128 | ~43d | −0.5¢ | 0.6¢ | $1 | 0.6% |
| Charlotte | MLS Cup Winner 2026 | 2.4%Polymarket | 97.0%Kalshi | $217 | ~89d | −0.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Omarion Hampton | Pro Football: 2026-27 Rushing Touchdowns Lea… | 3.0%Polymarket | 94.0%Kalshi | $27 | ~114d | −0.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $1 | 2.5% |
FC Barcelona
League Phase Top Finisher — 2026-27Buy at33.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite56.0%Kalshi
Profit$2Return8.7%
Capital$20Hold~129dFees−3.3¢Net edge7.7¢
Virginia Tech
College Football ACC Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026 seasonBuy at16.0%KalshiBuy opposite80.0%Polymarket US
Profit$2Return2.0%
Capital$83Hold~76dFees−2.1¢Net edge1.9¢
Alfonso Sánchez García
Tlaxcala Governor Election WinnerBuy at11.0%KalshiBuy opposite82.0%Polymarket
Profit$2Return6.2%
Capital$27Hold~259dFees−1.3¢Net edge5.7¢
Texas Tech
College Football Big 12 Championship Winner — 2026Buy at37.0%KalshiBuy opposite59.0%Polymarket
Profit$2Return1.2%
Capital$134Hold~104dFees−2.8¢Net edge1.2¢
Democratic Party
FL-26 House Election WinnerBuy at7.0%PolymarketBuy opposite92.0%Kalshi
Profit$2Return0.2%
Capital$711Hold~43dFees−0.8¢Net edge0.2¢
Oregon
College Football Playoff National Championship Qualifiers — 2026-27Buy at9.0%KalshiBuy opposite86.0%Polymarket US
Profit$2Return3.8%
Capital$41Hold~117dFees−1.4¢Net edge3.6¢
YesDecember 31
US-Iran nuclear deal? — In 2026Buy at9.6%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket
Profit$2Return0.8%
Capital$189Hold~102dFees−0.6¢Net edge0.8¢
Marine Le Pen
Next French Presidential ElectionBuy at37.4%PolymarketBuy opposite58.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return2.1%
Capital$72Hold~203dFees−2.6¢Net edge2.0¢
Democratic
New York Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at93.1%KalshiBuy opposite6.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.2%
Capital$625Hold~43dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.2¢
Democratic Party
WA-04 House Election WinnerBuy at5.0%KalshiBuy opposite93.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return1.4%
Capital$98Hold~44dFees−0.6¢Net edge1.4¢
Democratic Party
MA-01 House Election WinnerBuy at92.6%KalshiBuy opposite6.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.7%
Capital$197Hold~44dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.7¢
Soft landing
US economic state at the end of 2026?Buy at21.0%PolymarketBuy opposite74.9%Kalshi
Profit$1Return2.0%
Capital$68Hold~115dFees−2.1¢Net edge2.0¢
Democratic Party
WA-05 House Election WinnerBuy at16.0%KalshiBuy opposite82.2%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$471Hold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge0.3¢
Pope Leo XIV
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Buy at4.7%PolymarketBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return5.8%
Capital$22Hold~102dFees−0.9¢Net edge5.4¢
Rastislav Mochnacký
Prešov Mayoral Election WinnerBuy at27.0%PolymarketBuy opposite70.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.8%
Capital$170Hold~34dFees−2.3¢Net edge0.7¢
No9.5+ rushing TDs
Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing TouchdownsBuy at18.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite72.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return8.9%
Capital$14Hold~112dFees−2.0¢Net edge8.0¢
Yes9.5+ rushing TDs
Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing TouchdownsBuy at72.0%PolymarketBuy opposite18.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return8.9%
Capital$14Hold~112dFees−2.0¢Net edge8.0¢
Juliana Stratton
Illinois Senate Election WinnerBuy at97.0%GeminiBuy opposite2.3%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$357Hold~50dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.3¢
Dak Prescott
Pro Football Passing Yards Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at5.0%KalshiBuy opposite93.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return1.4%
Capital$87Hold~114dFees−0.7¢Net edge1.3¢
Alibaba
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Buy at88.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite9.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.0%
Capital$60Hold~10dFees−1.1¢Net edge1.9¢
80,000 to 84,999.99
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 — On Jan 1, 2027 at 12am ESTBuy at13.3%KalshiBuy opposite81.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return4.1%
Capital$29Hold~102dFees−1.9¢Net edge3.8¢
Democratic
New Jersey Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at97.0%PolymarketBuy opposite2.1%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.6%
Capital$179Hold~43dFees−0.3¢Net edge0.6¢
Republican
NY-21 House Election WinnerBuy at77.0%PolymarketBuy opposite20.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return1.2%
Capital$95Hold~43dFees−1.8¢Net edge1.2¢
Wes Moore
2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028Buy at4.0%PolymarketBuy opposite93.0%Gemini
Profit$1Return2.5%
Capital$46Hold~689dFees−0.6¢Net edge2.4¢
Oregon
College Football Big Ten Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026 seasonBuy at30.0%KalshiBuy opposite65.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return2.1%
Capital$54Hold~76dFees−3.1¢Net edge1.9¢
Kylian Mbappé
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026Buy at7.5%PolymarketBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return2.7%
Capital$41Hold~36dFees−0.9¢Net edge2.6¢
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesBuy at52.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite43.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.7%
Capital$41Hold~2dFees−2.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesBuy at43.0%PolymarketBuy opposite52.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return2.7%
Capital$41Hold~2dFees−2.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Democratic Progressive Party
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party WinnerBuy at12.2%PolymarketBuy opposite86.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.5%
Capital$196Hold~68dFees−1.3¢Net edge0.5¢
The Debut
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay WinnerBuy at32.0%KalshiBuy opposite63.2%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.2%
Capital$48Hold~175dFees−2.7¢Net edge2.1¢
Lost Weekend
Grammy winner: Album of the Year — In 2027Buy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite96.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.6%
Capital$171Hold~140dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.6¢
The Art of Loving
Grammy winner: Album of the Year — In 2027Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite86.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.7%
Capital$153Hold~140dFees−1.3¢Net edge0.7¢
End of Beginning
Top Song 2026Buy at72.5%PolymarketBuy opposite22.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return3.5%
Capital$28Hold~73dFees−2.2¢Net edge3.3¢
Democratic
NJ-07 House winner? — In 2026Buy at81.0%KalshiBuy opposite17.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.4%
Capital$255Hold~44dFees−1.6¢Net edge0.4¢
Kim Jong Un
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Buy at15.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite78.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return5.8%
Capital$16Hold~102dFees−1.6¢Net edge5.4¢
Tampa Bay Rays
MLB: 2026 American League ChampionBuy at25.2%PolymarketBuy opposite71.0%Gemini
Profit$1Return1.9%
Capital$48Hold~41dFees−2.0¢Net edge1.8¢
Kamala Harris
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at4.0%GeminiBuy opposite95.4%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.2%
Capital$568Hold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.2¢
Republican
NM-02 House Election WinnerBuy at8.0%PolymarketBuy opposite91.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.1%
Capital$652Hold~45dFees−0.9¢Net edge0.1¢
Denis Villeneuve
Oscar Winner: Best Director — In 2027Buy at14.0%KalshiBuy opposite80.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return4.6%
Capital$19Hold~175dFees−1.6¢Net edge4.4¢
Josh Shapiro
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at4.7%KalshiBuy opposite94.4%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.4%
Capital$225Hold~778dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.4¢
Republican
Maine Senate Election WinnerBuy at18.0%KalshiBuy opposite70.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return11.5%
Capital$7Hold~43dFees−1.9¢Net edge10.1¢
Republican
Alabama Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at93.3%KalshiBuy opposite4.2%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.0%
Capital$43Hold~43dFees−0.6¢Net edge1.9¢
Robert Pattinson
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor — In 2027Buy at10.8%PolymarketBuy opposite81.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return7.2%
Capital$11Hold~175dFees−1.6¢Net edge6.6¢
Choosin’ Texas
Top Song on Spotify U.S in 2026?Buy at91.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite5.9%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.3%
Capital$34Hold~73dFees−0.8¢Net edge2.3¢
Los Angeles Rams
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at13.0%KalshiBuy opposite83.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.9%
Capital$27Hold~126dFees−1.2¢Net edge2.8¢
Joe Burrow
Pro Football Passing Yards Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at4.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return3.5%
Capital$22Hold~112dFees−0.6¢Net edge3.4¢
Mike Rounds
South Dakota Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at92.0%GeminiBuy opposite5.2%Polymarket
Profit$1Return2.1%
Capital$35Hold~43dFees−0.7¢Net edge2.1¢
Republican
KY-04 House Election WinnerBuy at94.5%KalshiBuy opposite4.4%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.6%
Capital$128Hold~43dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.6¢
Charlotte
MLS Cup Winner 2026Buy at2.4%PolymarketBuy opposite97.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$217Hold~89dFees−0.3¢Net edge0.3¢
Omarion Hampton
Pro Football: 2026-27 Rushing Touchdowns LeaderBuy at3.0%PolymarketBuy opposite94.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return2.5%
Capital$27Hold~114dFees−0.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Showing 101–150 of 505