GAPS
500 gaps
336/500 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 46.0%Kalshi | 48.8%Polymarket | $7.0K | ~778d | −2.7¢ | 2.5¢ | $181 | 2.6% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israe… | 27.0%Kalshi | 71.0%Polymarket | $14.8K | ~101d | −1.4¢ | 0.6¢ | $94 | 0.6% |
| Ron DeSantis | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2.9%Polymarket | 95.7%Kalshi | $5.2K | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 1.0¢ | $53 | 1.0% |
| Republican | Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Electi… | 34.0%Polymarket | 59.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | ~778d | −2.6¢ | 4.4¢ | $51 | 4.7% |
| Democratic | Maine Senate Election Winner | 70.0%Polymarket | 20.0%Kalshi | $450 | ~43d | −2.0¢ | 8.0¢ | $40 | 8.9% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 8.0%Kalshi | 89.0%Polymarket | $1.7K | ~126d | −0.8¢ | 2.2¢ | $38 | 2.3% |
| Republican | New Hampshire Governor winner? — In 2026 | 88.0%Polymarket US | 9.0%Polymarket | $1.8K | ~43d | −1.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $36 | 2.0% |
| San Francisco | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 9.0%Kalshi | 85.0%Polymarket | $406 | ~126d | −1.0¢ | 5.0¢ | $22 | 5.4% |
| No | Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular … | 77.0%Polymarket US | 11.0%Polymarket | $180 | ~112d | −1.7¢ | 10.3¢ | $21 | 11.7% |
| Yes | Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular … | 11.0%Polymarket | 77.0%Polymarket US | $180 | ~112d | −1.7¢ | 10.3¢ | $21 | 11.7% |
| Green Bay | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 3.0%Kalshi | 95.0%Polymarket | $1.1K | ~126d | −0.3¢ | 1.7¢ | $19 | 1.7% |
| Republican | New Hampshire Senate Election Winner | 15.0%Polymarket US | 82.0%Polymarket | $1.2K | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $19 | 1.6% |
| Republican | OH-09 House Election Winner | 26.0%Polymarket | 69.0%Polymarket US | $627 | ~44d | −2.3¢ | 2.7¢ | $18 | 2.9% |
| Kim Jong Un | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 15.0%Polymarket US | 79.0%Polymarket | $375 | ~102d | −1.5¢ | 4.5¢ | $18 | 4.7% |
| OpenAI | Which AI company will have the best coding m… | 9.0%Polymarket US | 81.0%Kalshi | $189 | ~102d | −1.6¢ | 8.4¢ | $18 | 9.3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 2.7%Polymarket | 96.0%Gemini | $1.8K | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $17 | 0.9% |
| Detroit Lions | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 4.0%Kalshi | 93.0%Polymarket | $642 | ~126d | −0.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $17 | 2.6% |
| Dalton Kincaid | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 20… | 4.0%Kalshi | 89.0%Gemini | $256 | ~112d | −1.0¢ | 6.0¢ | $17 | 6.5% |
| OpenAI | Which companies will have a top-ranked AI mo… | 32.0%Kalshi | 60.0%Polymarket US | $316 | ~102d | −3.2¢ | 4.8¢ | $17 | 5.2% |
| Yes Above 4.5% | How high will inflation get in 2026? | 19.0%Polymarket | 74.0%Kalshi | $296 | ~102d | −2.1¢ | 4.9¢ | $16 | 5.3% |
| Isaiah Likely | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 20… | 5.0%Kalshi | 88.0%Gemini | $233 | ~112d | −1.1¢ | 5.9¢ | $15 | 6.4% |
| Marco Rubio | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 8.9%Polymarket | 86.0%Gemini | $351 | ~778d | −1.2¢ | 3.9¢ | $15 | 4.1% |
| Pete Hegseth | Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Durin… | 10.1%Polymarket | 78.0%Kalshi | $123 | ~102d | −1.6¢ | 10.3¢ | $14 | 11.7% |
| Puka Nacua | Offensive Player of the Year Winner? — 2026-… | 4.0%Polymarket US | 92.0%Polymarket | $372 | ~144d | −0.6¢ | 3.4¢ | $13 | 3.5% |
| Tucker Kraft | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 20… | 3.0%Kalshi | 95.0%Gemini | $817 | ~112d | −0.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $12 | 1.5% |
| Vladimir Putin | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 62.0%Polymarket US | 32.0%Polymarket | $327 | ~102d | −2.5¢ | 3.5¢ | $12 | 3.7% |
| Yes | Will there be a recession in 2027? | 26.0%Kalshi | 66.0%Polymarket | $202 | ~467d | −2.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $12 | 6.0% |
| No | Will there be a recession in 2027? | 66.0%Polymarket | 26.0%Kalshi | $202 | ~467d | −2.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $12 | 6.0% |
| Democratic | Minnesota Senate winner? — In 2026 | 90.4%Kalshi | 8.0%Polymarket | $1.7K | ~43d | −0.9¢ | 0.7¢ | $12 | 0.7% |
| Anna Kelly | Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — … | 20.0%Kalshi | 73.0%Gemini | $232 | ~852d | −2.5¢ | 4.5¢ | $11 | 4.8% |
| 6 | How many House seats will Democrats win in N… | 12.0%Kalshi | 77.0%Polymarket | $82 | ~43d | −1.4¢ | 9.6¢ | $9 | 10.7% |
| Kamala Harris | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 8.1%Kalshi | 88.0%Polymarket US | $317 | ~690d | −1.3¢ | 2.6¢ | $9 | 2.8% |
| Katie Hobbs (D) | Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County W… | 84.0%Polymarket | 10.0%Polymarket US | $159 | ~44d | −1.2¢ | 4.8¢ | $8 | 5.1% |
| No 24.5+ passing TDs | Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Se… | 30.0%Polymarket | 61.0%Polymarket US | $108 | ~112d | −2.7¢ | 6.3¢ | $7 | 6.9% |
| Yes 24.5+ passing TDs | Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Se… | 61.0%Polymarket US | 30.0%Polymarket | $108 | ~112d | −2.7¢ | 6.3¢ | $7 | 6.9% |
| Republican party | MN-02 House winner? — In 2026 | 5.9%Polymarket | 92.3%Kalshi | $589 | ~45d | −0.7¢ | 1.1¢ | $6 | 1.1% |
| Yes | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Co… | 17.0%Polymarket | 75.0%Kalshi | $92 | ~102d | −1.9¢ | 6.1¢ | $6 | 6.7% |
| No | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Co… | 75.0%Kalshi | 17.0%Polymarket | $92 | ~102d | −1.9¢ | 6.1¢ | $6 | 6.7% |
| SK Slovan Bratislava | UEFA Champions League: League Phase Last Pla… | 16.0%Polymarket US | 75.0%Polymarket | $77 | ~129d | −1.9¢ | 7.1¢ | $6 | 7.8% |
| Duke | Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — 202… | 12.0%Kalshi | 83.0%Polymarket US | $167 | ~197d | −1.7¢ | 3.3¢ | $6 | 3.5% |
| Mark Kelly | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 3.1%Polymarket | 96.1%Kalshi | $1.3K | ~778d | −0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $5 | 0.4% |
| Nik Bonitto | Defensive Player of the Year Winner? — 2026-… | 4.0%Kalshi | 92.0%Polymarket | $151 | ~144d | −0.6¢ | 3.4¢ | $5 | 3.5% |
| Democratic | Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Electi… | 59.0%Kalshi | 34.0%Polymarket | $111 | ~778d | −2.6¢ | 4.4¢ | $5 | 4.7% |
| Darian Mensah | Pro Football #1 Overall Pick in 2027 — 1st P… | 12.0%Kalshi | 84.4%Polymarket | $202 | ~214d | −1.1¢ | 2.5¢ | $5 | 2.6% |
| The Black Ball | Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner | 27.0%Kalshi | 67.0%Polymarket | $136 | ~175d | −2.5¢ | 3.5¢ | $5 | 3.7% |
| Babydoll | Top Song 2026 | 20.0%Polymarket US | 74.7%Polymarket | $145 | ~73d | −2.1¢ | 3.2¢ | $5 | 3.4% |
| 120 to 125MILLION | 2026 Midterms: House Turnout | 17.0%Polymarket | 78.0%Polymarket US | $141 | ~43d | −1.8¢ | 3.2¢ | $5 | 3.4% |
| Kathy Hochul (D) | New York Governor Election: Nassau County Wi… | 39.0%Polymarket | 55.0%Polymarket US | $136 | ~44d | −2.7¢ | 3.3¢ | $5 | 3.5% |
| Republican Party | WA-05 House Election Winner | 81.0%Polymarket | 17.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | ~43d | −1.6¢ | 0.4¢ | $5 | 0.4% |
| Democratic | New Hampshire Senate Election Winner | 82.0%Polymarket | 15.0%Polymarket US | $292 | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $5 | 1.6% |
J.D. Vance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at46.0%KalshiBuy opposite48.8%Polymarket
Profit$181Return2.6%
Capital$7.0KHold~778dFees−2.7¢Net edge2.5¢
Benjamin Netanyahu
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Buy at27.0%KalshiBuy opposite71.0%Polymarket
Profit$94Return0.6%
Capital$14.8KHold~101dFees−1.4¢Net edge0.6¢
Ron DeSantis
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at2.9%PolymarketBuy opposite95.7%Kalshi
Profit$53Return1.0%
Capital$5.2KHold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge1.0¢
Republican
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Buy at34.0%PolymarketBuy opposite59.0%Kalshi
Profit$51Return4.7%
Capital$1.1KHold~778dFees−2.6¢Net edge4.4¢
Democratic
Maine Senate Election WinnerBuy at70.0%PolymarketBuy opposite20.0%Kalshi
Profit$40Return8.9%
Capital$450Hold~43dFees−2.0¢Net edge8.0¢
Seattle Seahawks
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at8.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket
Profit$38Return2.3%
Capital$1.7KHold~126dFees−0.8¢Net edge2.2¢
Republican
New Hampshire Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at88.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite9.0%Polymarket
Profit$36Return2.0%
Capital$1.8KHold~43dFees−1.1¢Net edge1.9¢
San Francisco
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at9.0%KalshiBuy opposite85.0%Polymarket
Profit$22Return5.4%
Capital$406Hold~126dFees−1.0¢Net edge5.0¢
No
Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving TouchdownsBuy at77.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite11.0%Polymarket
Profit$21Return11.7%
Capital$180Hold~112dFees−1.7¢Net edge10.3¢
Yes
Pro Football: DeVonta Smith 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving TouchdownsBuy at11.0%PolymarketBuy opposite77.0%Polymarket US
Profit$21Return11.7%
Capital$180Hold~112dFees−1.7¢Net edge10.3¢
Green Bay
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.0%Polymarket
Profit$19Return1.7%
Capital$1.1KHold~126dFees−0.3¢Net edge1.7¢
Republican
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerBuy at15.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite82.0%Polymarket
Profit$19Return1.6%
Capital$1.2KHold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Republican
OH-09 House Election WinnerBuy at26.0%PolymarketBuy opposite69.0%Polymarket US
Profit$18Return2.9%
Capital$627Hold~44dFees−2.3¢Net edge2.7¢
Kim Jong Un
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Buy at15.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite79.0%Polymarket
Profit$18Return4.7%
Capital$375Hold~102dFees−1.5¢Net edge4.5¢
OpenAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026Buy at9.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite81.0%Kalshi
Profit$18Return9.3%
Capital$189Hold~102dFees−1.6¢Net edge8.4¢
Pete Buttigieg
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at2.7%PolymarketBuy opposite96.0%Gemini
Profit$17Return0.9%
Capital$1.8KHold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.9¢
Detroit Lions
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite93.0%Polymarket
Profit$17Return2.6%
Capital$642Hold~126dFees−0.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Dalton Kincaid
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Gemini
Profit$17Return6.5%
Capital$256Hold~112dFees−1.0¢Net edge6.0¢
OpenAI
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? — In 2026Buy at32.0%KalshiBuy opposite60.0%Polymarket US
Profit$17Return5.2%
Capital$316Hold~102dFees−3.2¢Net edge4.8¢
YesAbove 4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?Buy at19.0%PolymarketBuy opposite74.0%Kalshi
Profit$16Return5.3%
Capital$296Hold~102dFees−2.1¢Net edge4.9¢
Isaiah Likely
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at5.0%KalshiBuy opposite88.0%Gemini
Profit$15Return6.4%
Capital$233Hold~112dFees−1.1¢Net edge5.9¢
Marco Rubio
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at8.9%PolymarketBuy opposite86.0%Gemini
Profit$15Return4.1%
Capital$351Hold~778dFees−1.2¢Net edge3.9¢
Pete Hegseth
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — During Trump's termBuy at10.1%PolymarketBuy opposite78.0%Kalshi
Profit$14Return11.7%
Capital$123Hold~102dFees−1.6¢Net edge10.3¢
Puka Nacua
Offensive Player of the Year Winner? — 2026-27 seasonBuy at4.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$13Return3.5%
Capital$372Hold~144dFees−0.6¢Net edge3.4¢
Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top TE — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.0%Gemini
Profit$12Return1.5%
Capital$817Hold~112dFees−0.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Vladimir Putin
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Buy at62.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite32.0%Polymarket
Profit$12Return3.7%
Capital$327Hold~102dFees−2.5¢Net edge3.5¢
Yes
Will there be a recession in 2027?Buy at26.0%KalshiBuy opposite66.0%Polymarket
Profit$12Return6.0%
Capital$202Hold~467dFees−2.5¢Net edge5.5¢
No
Will there be a recession in 2027?Buy at66.0%PolymarketBuy opposite26.0%Kalshi
Profit$12Return6.0%
Capital$202Hold~467dFees−2.5¢Net edge5.5¢
Democratic
Minnesota Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at90.4%KalshiBuy opposite8.0%Polymarket
Profit$12Return0.7%
Capital$1.7KHold~43dFees−0.9¢Net edge0.7¢
Anna Kelly
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Before Jan 21, 2029Buy at20.0%KalshiBuy opposite73.0%Gemini
Profit$11Return4.8%
Capital$232Hold~852dFees−2.5¢Net edge4.5¢
6
How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite77.0%Polymarket
Profit$9Return10.7%
Capital$82Hold~43dFees−1.4¢Net edge9.6¢
Kamala Harris
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at8.1%KalshiBuy opposite88.0%Polymarket US
Profit$9Return2.8%
Capital$317Hold~690dFees−1.3¢Net edge2.6¢
Katie Hobbs (D)
Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County WinnerBuy at84.0%PolymarketBuy opposite10.0%Polymarket US
Profit$8Return5.1%
Capital$159Hold~44dFees−1.2¢Net edge4.8¢
No24.5+ passing TDs
Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Season Passing TouchdownsBuy at30.0%PolymarketBuy opposite61.0%Polymarket US
Profit$7Return6.9%
Capital$108Hold~112dFees−2.7¢Net edge6.3¢
Yes24.5+ passing TDs
Pro Football: Brock Purdy 2026-27 Regular Season Passing TouchdownsBuy at61.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite30.0%Polymarket
Profit$7Return6.9%
Capital$108Hold~112dFees−2.7¢Net edge6.3¢
Republican party
MN-02 House winner? — In 2026Buy at5.9%PolymarketBuy opposite92.3%Kalshi
Profit$6Return1.1%
Capital$589Hold~45dFees−0.7¢Net edge1.1¢
Yes
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Buy at17.0%PolymarketBuy opposite75.0%Kalshi
Profit$6Return6.7%
Capital$92Hold~102dFees−1.9¢Net edge6.1¢
No
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Buy at75.0%KalshiBuy opposite17.0%Polymarket
Profit$6Return6.7%
Capital$92Hold~102dFees−1.9¢Net edge6.1¢
SK Slovan Bratislava
UEFA Champions League: League Phase Last PlaceBuy at16.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite75.0%Polymarket
Profit$6Return7.8%
Capital$77Hold~129dFees−1.9¢Net edge7.1¢
Duke
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — 2026-27 SeasonBuy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite83.0%Polymarket US
Profit$6Return3.5%
Capital$167Hold~197dFees−1.7¢Net edge3.3¢
Mark Kelly
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at3.1%PolymarketBuy opposite96.1%Kalshi
Profit$5Return0.4%
Capital$1.3KHold~778dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.4¢
Nik Bonitto
Defensive Player of the Year Winner? — 2026-27 seasonBuy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$5Return3.5%
Capital$151Hold~144dFees−0.6¢Net edge3.4¢
Democratic
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Buy at59.0%KalshiBuy opposite34.0%Polymarket
Profit$5Return4.7%
Capital$111Hold~778dFees−2.6¢Net edge4.4¢
Darian Mensah
Pro Football #1 Overall Pick in 2027 — 1st Pick 2027Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite84.4%Polymarket
Profit$5Return2.6%
Capital$202Hold~214dFees−1.1¢Net edge2.5¢
The Black Ball
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay WinnerBuy at27.0%KalshiBuy opposite67.0%Polymarket
Profit$5Return3.7%
Capital$136Hold~175dFees−2.5¢Net edge3.5¢
Babydoll
Top Song 2026Buy at20.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite74.7%Polymarket
Profit$5Return3.4%
Capital$145Hold~73dFees−2.1¢Net edge3.2¢
120 to 125MILLION
2026 Midterms: House TurnoutBuy at17.0%PolymarketBuy opposite78.0%Polymarket US
Profit$5Return3.4%
Capital$141Hold~43dFees−1.8¢Net edge3.2¢
Kathy Hochul (D)
New York Governor Election: Nassau County WinnerBuy at39.0%PolymarketBuy opposite55.0%Polymarket US
Profit$5Return3.5%
Capital$136Hold~44dFees−2.7¢Net edge3.3¢
Republican Party
WA-05 House Election WinnerBuy at81.0%PolymarketBuy opposite17.0%Kalshi
Profit$5Return0.4%
Capital$1.1KHold~43dFees−1.6¢Net edge0.4¢
Democratic
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerBuy at82.0%PolymarketBuy opposite15.0%Polymarket US
Profit$5Return1.6%
Capital$292Hold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Showing 1–50 of 500