2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

The 2026 Men's US Open Winner market resolves to whichever player claims the men's singles title at Flushing Meadows (August 30–September 13, 2026). With the tournament now in its second week, markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini, and Limitless have narrowed sharply to a two-man race. Top seed Alexander Zverev has reached the quarter-finals in New York, and the markets reflect it: he is the consensus favourite at 37.0%, edging Carlos Alcaraz at 36.0%. Zverev arrived at the US Open having already won Roland Garros this year, chasing a rare feat of winning his first two Grand Slam titles in the same calendar year. His path to the quarters was capped by a dominant 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(3) victory over Luciano Darderi. Alcaraz's odds carry significant uncertainty due to his injury history. He had not played since April's Barcelona Open due to a wrist injury, missing Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and confirmed his return to competitive tennis at the US Open after a more than four-month absence. Returning at a hard-court Slam with no competitive action in four months — facing best-of-five matches — represents a monumental task. This context explains the wide cross-platform spread on Alcaraz (6.0 pts), ranging from just 15.2% on Limitless to 61.0% on Polymarket US. Ben Shelton is a distant third at a consensus 23.9%, with an 8.9-point spread of his own. The Limitless platform is a notable outlier, pricing Jannik Sinner at 50.0% despite Kalshi and Polymarket effectively dismissing him at near-zero, suggesting a stale or illiquid book. Overall, Kalshi (with over $29.6M in volume) and Polymarket ($23M) dominate price discovery and broadly agree on a near-coin-flip between Zverev and Alcaraz, making them the most reliable reference points for this market.