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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin
Starts:Sep 15, 2026, 4:00 PMEnds:Feb 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
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Total volume
$33.1K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
13
Platforms
2
Markets
2
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Party 0-2% | 3.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican Party 0-2% | 2.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 2-4% | 6.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican Party 2-4% | 2.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 4-6% | 11.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican Party 4-6% | 2.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 6-8% | 11.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 8-10% Favorite | 29.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 10-12% | 24.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 12-14% | 10.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 14-16% | 3.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 16%+ | 3.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic Party 0-2%
3.0%Best · Polymarket US
Republican Party 0-2%
2.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 2-4%
6.0%Best · Polymarket US
Republican Party 2-4%
2.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 4-6%
11.0%Best · Polymarket US
Republican Party 4-6%
2.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 6-8%
11.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 8-10%Favorite
29.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 10-12%
24.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 12-14%
10.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 14-16%
3.0%Best · Polymarket US
Democratic Party 16%+
3.0%Best · Polymarket US
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
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