2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R+0.9 to D+0.9 | 29.0%Kalshi | $5.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.
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