Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jon Ossoff Favorite | 15.1%Polymarket | $21.7M | — | — | — | ||||
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14.0%Polymarket US | $25.2M | — | — | |||||
Gavin Newsom | 14.0%Kalshi | $38.5M | — | — | |||||
Kamala Harris | 7.0%Limitless | $22.3M | — | — | |||||
Andy Beshear Widest spread 5.9% | 2.7%Polymarket | $19.9M | — | — | |||||
Pete Buttigieg | 5.1%Kalshi | $18.5M | — | — | |||||
Josh Shapiro | 4.7%Kalshi | $15.9M | — | — | |||||
Mark Kelly | 2.6%Polymarket | $25.8M | — | — | — | ||||
Rahm Emanuel | 1.8%Polymarket | $22.2M | — | — | — | ||||
James Talarico | 2.6%Kalshi | $18.9M | — | — | — | — | |||
Wes Moore | 2.1%Polymarket | $23.6M | — | — | — | ||||
Bernie Sanders | 0.4%Kalshi | $58.0M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Raphael Warnock | 1.4%Polymarket | $38.9M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
J.B. Pritzker | 1.3%Polymarket | $21.9M | — | — | — | ||||
Michelle Obama | 0.3%Polymarket | $33.2M | — | — | — | — | |||
Ro Khanna | 1.3%Polymarket | $18.1M | — | — | — | — | |||
Jon Stewart | 0.5%Kalshi | $29.4M | — | — | — | — | |||
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.2%Kalshi | $15.5M | — | — | — | — | |||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market lets traders bet on who will carry the party's banner, with each outcome resolving "yes" if that individual wins and accepts the nomination. It is one of the most heavily traded political contracts on record, with roughly $1.5 billion wagered across platforms, reflecting intense early interest nearly two years before the primaries begin. Right now the field is tightly bunched at the top. Gavin Newsom holds the consensus lead at 16.0%, but Jon Ossoff (15.8%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (15.7%) are essentially tied just behind him, meaning no single contender commands a true plurality. Kamala Harris trails at 7.8%, with Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg further back near 5%. Cross-platform dispersion is notable for several names: Ocasio-Cortez shows a 5.00-point spread between venues, and Andy Beshear an even wider 5.85-point spread, with Polymarket pricing him far lower than Polymarket US. This top-three churn is recent and reflects real volatility rather than a settled consensus. Jon Ossoff surged to match Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez atop the 2028 Democratic presidential prediction market, pushing California Gov. Gavin Newsom to third place. Kalshi traders have also priced Newsom higher at points, with AOC and Ossoff close behind, after a Vanity Fair affair essay went viral, showing how quickly sentiment around Newsom has swung. Overall, the market signals a genuinely fragmented, undecided Democratic field rather than a clear front-runner.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.