2028 Iowa Democratic caucus winner? — IA
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jon Ossoff No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity28.0% | — | — | — | — |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity16.0% | — | — | — | — |
Gavin Newsom No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity16.0% | — | — | — | — |
Pete Buttigieg No liquidity | — | $48 | — | No liquidity8.9% | — | — | — | — |
Kamala Harris No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity8.0% | — | — | — | — |
Josh Shapiro No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity8.1% | — | — | — | — |
Andy Beshear No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity8.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mark Kelly No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity7.5% | — | — | — | — |
James Talarico No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity7.8% | — | — | — | — |
Abdul El-Sayed No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity7.4% | — | — | — | — |
Raphael Warnock No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity7.0% | — | — | — | — |
Wes Moore No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity6.9% | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. This market resolves on the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts for the 2028 nomination that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates (a caucus, a party-run primary or a mail-in preference vote), whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes it or seats its delegates. The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If that contest is not held before Nov 7, 2028, or reports no statewide vote count, every market resolves to No.
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