2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Nov 7, 2028
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99% | 5.0%Kalshi | $7.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 0.01% to 0.99% | 4.0%Kalshi | $5.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 1.0% to 1.99% | 5.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99% | 6.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 2.0% to 2.99% | 3.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99% | 6.0%Kalshi | $4.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99% | 6.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99% | 7.0%Kalshi | $5.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99% | 7.0%Kalshi | $5.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 6.0% to 6.99% | 4.0%Kalshi | $8.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% | 11.0%Kalshi | $5.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 7.0% to 7.99% | 4.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% | 18.0%Kalshi | $11.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 8.0% to 8.99% | 4.0%Kalshi | $3.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democratic by 9.0% or more Favorite | 23.0%Kalshi | $11.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Republican by 9.0% or more | 10.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.
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