AfD margin of victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? — September 20, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AfD, ≥3% | — | $7.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
AfD, ≥6% | — | $6.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
AfD, ≥9% | — | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
AfD, ≥12% | — | $3.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
AfD, ≥15% | — | $1.7K | — | — | — | — | — |
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The margin is AfD’s share of valid statewide second votes minus the share of the next-highest party if AfD finishes first, or minus the first-place party’s share if AfD loses. Party ranking by statewide second votes applies; the multi-winner candidate rule does not apply to this party-list margin. First votes and seats won are not used. The margin is positive for a win, negative for a loss, and zero for a tie for first. No rounding is applied. Each threshold includes its lower bound and the maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives the proportional payout specified in the full rules for every range containing zero; other ranges resolve No. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.