AL Cy Young Winner? — 2026 season

This market asks who will win the American League Cy Young Award for the 2026 MLB season, with each outcome representing an individual pitcher (plus a "Tie/Co-Winners" option on some venues). It is listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini, with combined volume approaching $3.9 million and Kalshi carrying the bulk of activity at roughly $2.6 million. Cam Schlittler is the clear favourite at a 65.5% consensus, trading at 65.5% on Polymarket, 64.3% on Polymarket US and 63.0% on both Kalshi and Gemini — a fairly tight 4.45-point spread. Dylan Cease is the only other serious contender at a 34.5% consensus, ranging from 31.7% on Polymarket US and 31.9% on Polymarket up to 35.0% on Kalshi and 36.0% on Gemini. Together, Schlittler and Cease account for essentially the entire probability mass, leaving the remaining field — including names like Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Gerrit Cole and Joe Ryan — priced at 2% or lower on most venues. Across platforms, pricing on the two front-runners is broadly consistent, with Gemini and Kalshi slightly more generous on Cease than the Polymarket venues.