AL MVP Winner? — 2026 season

This market asks who will win the American League Most Valuable Player award for the 2026 MLB season, with resolution tied to the official league announcement expected by early December 2026. The market is listed on Kalshi, which carries essentially all of the volume at roughly $4.09m, and on Gemini, where activity is minimal at around $3,380. Each named outcome pays out if that player is declared the AL MVP, with a separate line for a tie or co-winners scenario. Yordan Álvarez is the runaway favourite at a 93.0% consensus, priced at 91.0% on Kalshi and 95.0% on Gemini — a 4.0-point cross-platform gap on the same name. Behind him, the field is extremely flat: Junior Caminero sits at a 7.5% consensus (8.0% Kalshi, 7.0% Gemini), Bobby Witt Jr. at 2.5%, and a long tail of AL regulars including Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, José Ramírez and Tarik Skubal each pinned near 1.0–1.5%. Dillon Dingler shows an unusual 26.0% consensus figure driven by a wide 24.5-point spread, though both underlying platform quotes (Kalshi 2.0%, Gemini 3.0%) are low. Across both venues, traders are treating Álvarez as an overwhelming favourite, with only minor pricing disagreement at the top of the board.