AL Rookie of the Year Winner? — 2026 season

This market asks which player will win the American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB season, with the market running through early December 2026. Kalshi carries essentially all of the volume, at roughly $1.69 million, while Gemini lists the same field with only minimal activity. Each outcome resolves to a single named player, with a separate line for a tie or co-winners scenario. Kevin McGonigle is the clear frontrunner, priced at 84.0% on Gemini and 81.0% on Kalshi for a consensus of 82.0%. That's a dominant lead over the rest of the field: the next names down are Parker Messick (Gemini 5.0%, Kalshi 7.0%) and Munetaka Murakami (Gemini 14.0%, Kalshi 16.0%), with everyone else sitting at 2.0% or below. A gap of roughly 65 points between the favourite and the second-most-likely name signals that traders view the race as effectively McGonigle's to lose. The most notable cross-platform discrepancy is on Parker Messick, where the consensus figure of 23.5% sits well above either individual quote, suggesting a data artefact rather than a true 17.5-point spread; the McGonigle prices differ by only 3 points. Overall, Kalshi and Gemini agree that McGonigle is a heavy favourite, with only marginal pricing differences across the field.