Alabama Senate winner? — In 2026

The market covers the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alabama, with contracts trading on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket structures its version around party outcomes — resolving to whichever nominee (Democratic, Republican, or a later-added third party) wins the general election, according to calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Kalshi lists the race by named candidate, currently with Barry Moore and Everett Wess among the options. Across platforms, a Republican win is heavily favoured. Polymarket prices the Republican outcome at 94.5% and the Democratic outcome at 4.0%, while Kalshi puts Barry Moore individually at 97.5% and Everett Wess at 3.9%. That makes Moore the overall favourite at a 97.0% consensus, with the broader Republican bucket at 94.5% — implying the market sees him as the near-certain Republican standard-bearer as well as the likely general election winner. There is no material cross-platform spread on any of the listed outcomes; Polymarket and Kalshi are effectively aligned, differing mainly in how they slice the race (party vs. named candidate). The cross-platform takeaway: both venues agree the seat is very likely to stay Republican, with Barry Moore priced as the dominant individual contender.