Alaska Governor Election Winner
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins FavoriteWidest spread 16.0% | 82.0%Kalshi | $188.9K | — | — | ||||
Nick Begich | 66.0%Gemini | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bernadette Wilson | 11.0%Polymarket US | $233.3K | — | — | ||||
Dave Bronson | 0.6%Polymarket | $70.6K | — | — | ||||
Mary Peltola | 0.1%Kalshi | $356.2K | — | — | — | |||
Treg Taylor | 0.5%Polymarket | $117.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
Click Bishop | 0.1%Kalshi | $67.1K | — | — | — | |||
Adam Crum | 0.1%Kalshi | $67.5K | — | — | — | |||
Tom Begich | 0.2%Kalshi | $407.6K | — | — | — | |||
Bill Walker | 0.2%Polymarket | $19.8K | — | — | — | |||
Lesil McGuire | 0.3%Polymarket | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market resolves on the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. On Polymarket, resolution requires the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to all call the race for the same candidate, otherwise defaulting to official certification. The event is listed across Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Gemini, with the bulk of activity (roughly $1.19M in volume) concentrated on Polymarket. Nick Begich is the clear favourite at a consensus 70.0%, currently only quoted on Gemini. Behind him, Dave Bronson sits at 51.0% on Polymarket US, and Bernadette Wilson prices tightly across venues at 39.0% on both Polymarket US and Gemini versus 35.5% on Polymarket, a modest 2-point spread. The wide field of lower-probability candidates suggests markets still view the race as unsettled beyond Begich. The most striking cross-platform gaps sit in the mid-tier. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins trades at 31.5% on Polymarket and 29.0% on Gemini but just 4.0% on Polymarket US, a 27.9-point spread. Click Bishop shows 23.0% on Polymarket US versus 4.9% on Polymarket, and Adam Crum is 15.0% on Polymarket US against 0.2% on Polymarket. Overall, platforms broadly agree Begich leads decisively, but disagree sharply on who ranks next.
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