Ararat-Armenia vs Shamrock

This is a UEFA Champions League Qualifying Round 2 tie between Ararat-Armenia and Shamrock Rovers, played across two legs — the first in Yerevan on July 21 and the second in Dublin on July 28. The markets track both individual match outcomes and overall tie progression. In the first leg, Ararat-Armenia won 2–0, with goals from Sandro Lima and Zidane Banjaqui. That result set the context for the second leg: the aggregate stood at 2–2 going into the return fixture, meaning Shamrock Rovers needed to win in Dublin to advance. On Kalshi, Ararat-Armenia winning the tie is priced at 90.0% and Shamrock advancing at just 12.0% — reflecting a decisive outcome already known at the time of the snapshot. The event is marked closed, and the probability data (with nearly all outcomes clustering at 99.0–99.9%) strongly suggests the markets have resolved. The "Shamrock Rovers FC" outcome on Polymarket sits at 99.9%, which is consistent with Shamrock having won the second leg and advanced on aggregate. Notably, the one standout anomaly is Limitless, where the match winner market shows Ararat-Armenia FA and Shamrock Rovers each priced near 50.0% and Draw near 49.9% — far out of step with Kalshi's near-certain readings and likely reflecting stale or unresolved liquidity on that platform. All active, liquid platforms — Kalshi and Polymarket — converge tightly on the same resolved outcome, with Limitless the sole outlier showing wide, unresolved spreads of up to 98.9 percentage points versus the consensus.