Argentina vs Switzerland
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $17.1M | — | — | No liquidity97.5% | — | — | ||
Dan Ndoye | 1.0%Kalshi | $29.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ricardo Rodriguez | 2.0%Kalshi | $16.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dan Ndoye: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $226.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $35.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alexis Mac Allister | 99.0%Kalshi | $25.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rodrigo De Paul: 2+ | 24.0%Kalshi | $3.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lisandro Martinez: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $140.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Thiago Almada: 1+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $19.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Leandro Paredes | 7.0%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nico Elvedi: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lisandro Martinez | 1.0%Kalshi | $43.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nahuel Molina | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eray Comert: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nicolas Tagliafico | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Denis Zakaria | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nico Elvedi | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Manuel Akanji | 2.0%Kalshi | $6.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Argentina Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $35.5M | — | — | — | Eliminated$20.3M | — | ||
Switzerland Eliminated | 0.3%Limitless | $13.5M | — | — | — | Eliminated$6.5M | — | ||
Julian Alvarez: 3+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $112.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lautaro Martinez: 3+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $23.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rodrigo De Paul | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fabian Rieder | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cristian Romero | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Djibril Sow | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Leandro Paredes: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $46.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cristian Romero: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $253.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rodrigo De Paul: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $90.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fabian Rieder: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $62.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nicolas Tagliafico: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $14.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Djibril Sow: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $143.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nahuel Molina: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $27.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Denis Zakaria: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $42.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dan Ndoye: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $179.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Julian Alvarez | 1.0%Kalshi | $54.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Breel Embolo | 1.0%Kalshi | $47.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Enzo Fernandez | 1.0%Kalshi | $21.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Granit Xhaka | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Remo Freuler | 1.0%Kalshi | $685 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Leandro Paredes: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $385 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gonzalo Montiel: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Silvan Widmer: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Miro Muheim: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Zeki Amdouni: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nico Gonzalez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $23.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ardon Jashari: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Flaco Lopez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $158 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is a live match — the snapshot was taken at 00:03 UTC on July 12, just over an hour after kickoff, and search results have not returned a confirmed final score. Here is the description based on available data: This market covers the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal between defending champion Argentina and Switzerland, played July 11 in Kansas City. The headline question — whether Argentina advance — sits at 75.0% on Kalshi, with Switzerland's chances implied at 26.0% on the same platform. The match is a knockout tie, so a draw after ninety minutes leads to extra time and penalties, keeping the Swiss path alive even without a regulation win. Lionel Scaloni's side are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since Brazil in 1962. Argentina hold a clear edge across all platforms. Polymarket's outright market prices Argentina at 57.5% and Switzerland at 15.8%, reflecting a narrower regulation-win probability versus the tournament-advance figure on Kalshi — the gap is explained by knockout rules allowing Argentina to advance via extra time or penalties. Neither side had an easy route to the last eight: Switzerland beat Colombia on penalties in the round of 16, while Argentina overcame a two-goal deficit to defeat Egypt 3-2. The draw for the halftime result market stands at roughly 27.3% on Polymarket, consistent with a tight, low-scoring first half. Messi's goalscorer odds sit at 51.0% to score 1+ goals on Kalshi, reflecting his extraordinary tournament form — he has tallied a tournament-high eight goals thus far and scored in every game he has played. Switzerland have reached the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 1954, which contextualises why markets price them as significant but not prohibitive underdogs. Cross-platform consensus is tight, with the largest spread just 1.25 percentage points on Switzerland's advancement chance between Kalshi (17.0%) and Limitless/Polymarket (15.8%), signalling strong agreement that Argentina are comfortably favoured but the match is far from decided.
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